Budget 2012: Fishing Like The Grecos

On Budget 2012, I was more interested in the number and the nature of the points that will be announced that are in individual basis, that is things that will affect on the individual capacity such as income tax reduction, or relief and so forth. By the end of the announcement at around 6 p.m, I made a rough count of 20 points that were mentioned in the budget. However, seeing how it was listed down, I have to say that it won't help much for a working professional, with just a few years out of the university life and into the real working world.

There were a few measures that can relate to the scenario above like allowing the First Home Scheme cap to go up to RM400K and compelling the employers to pay 1 more percent to their share of the monthly EPF for those earning less than RM5000 per month. The problem is, these measures are more or less plugging one hole but they overlook the other holes that have to be plugged. 

To elaborate in the context of the two cases above, the house example poses problems for people particularly in the Klang Valley. For instance, where can we find and buy houses / apartments that fall in the maximum cap of RM 400K? Secondly, even if the scheme supports it, do we have the means to repay the entire housing loan in the longest loan period of 30 years? Many of us do not have the understanding of what Kiyosaki said in this kind of case before that a property purchased with a bank loan is not an asset. It is a liability and it will be until it is cleared. In the space of 30 years, coupled with yearly interest, the debt incurred will also be passed to the children as well. In fact when they are born, they owed government money because of the way the people's money was misused!

Compelling the employers to pay 1 percent more on EPF doesn't really solve the problems. It in fact gives more problems to employers. This is already in addition to the standard corporate tax of 25% that they have to pay. Asking employers to pay extra without something to compensate in the process is hurting business more, which based on the speech text, Najib doesn't seem to anticipate this problem here. How will business do if this measure eats more to the current operational cost? This is what some people running a business would be complaining about. And when the business doesn't do well, there can only be either three options: retrenching workforce, wind up the business or move the business to somewhere else.

Having counted the number of measures (snapshots in particular), a quarter of the measures listed are aimed at civil servants (e.g, mandatory retirement, increment of salaries, bonuses, etc). Then there are also one-off payments for ex-military personnel, book vouchers for university students, vouchers for primary / secondary students, annual increment of pension by 2%, what more? It's easy to imply that these things are more for fishing the support of civil servants, rural area folks and those in the low-income bracket for they form the big core number of support (in vote translations) for Barisan Nasional of course. This has already raised many doubts and nay says from economists, educated people with financial understanding, opposition party people that budget won't do good.

As if it is meant to entice support from civil servants and the shoring up of support of the BN butter-up boys, the budget is not to changed and reshaped the entire nation's present economic structure but just to inject crack drugs into its financial nervous system. When Najib said that the present forecast GDP was would be less than 6%, he in fact a shot himself in the leg. As it was commented during Budget 2011, in order for the ETP to work, the annual GDP will have to be at least 6% or more from the inception period until to the end of the ETP timeline program which is in the few years. But with the present crisis in America and Europe, it is quite hard to maintain that forecast. 

And of course, the snapshots of the Budget doesn't show real reforms and restructuring. There is nothing new actually in what was announced. Some of the measures are considered recycled. They were once mooted in the last decade but because of opposition from the employers and the fallout of the Asian Financial Crisis 1997, some of the things were dropped originally.

When it comes to retirement, what is the actual ratio of retirement of people in private sector vs people in the government sector? If the incentives mentioned above are meant for those in civil service and those in the retirement, those in the private sector will start to ask where is the sense of fairness missing out. This would definitely spur the anger of why a person at the same age but working in the different sector gets more money to retire than those who work in private sector but get less retirement money. Was this never considered at all when putting the action plans of the budget into paper?

The formula of spending more and more stimulus measures to boost the economy could no longer work unlike in the 90s, in which Dr. Mahathir is famous for. This Keynesian concept is already ineffective, since as it was proven in America, the stimulus package that Obama signed has still yet to convince Americans, with the number of unemployed still around 5 million nationwide. 

I was constantly saying in the last few days that Budget 2012 is fishing the civil servants and the low-level supporters like the Grecos do. Greek is already facing towards default and need of bailout because of the attitude of the previous government. Two causes have been identified behind their problems: one, the mismanagement and overspending of their coffers by the previous government and secondly, the high number of civil servants, although it already is a surplus to what is needed to run the government departments. Malaysia is in the direction towards the similar disaster, although many politicians like Najib and Muhyiddin showed the attitude of dismissing what is forthcoming in years to come. 

The budget presentation is like injecting a booster. This means every time a booster is injected, like a drug, people start to crave more and more until they cannot stop. Why the youngsters in Britain and why people there riot in Tottenham a few months ago was simply because they were angry that they could not be fed with various measures usually the British government would provide them. When they don't give, they start doing violent things. If you put it in the way of not giving the drug to the person who has been addicted to it, you would see the strange behavior of a subject involved.

Will Malaysia become like Britain and Greece? Yes. In the years to come, with too many civil servants surplus to what is needed and the attitude of expecting yourselves being spoon feed all the time. These measures of introducing GSTs, (for example) are unknowingly what the economic hitmen would tell the Najib administration with a hidden agenda: to rob and cheat the country of the money. And it can be like the Indonesian scenario again. 

We have to relook at the Budget snapshots and ask whether if it will help people in long term. There's absolutely none that addresses the reforms and provides outlines of long term problem solving. If for some reason you notice that there's something not right with the Budget (like not much help) but yet you still support them, then I do not have any other answer to explain the reason apart from the answer of "you got conned and duped".

Examining The RM 1.8 million Six Facebook Fan Pages Case

KUALA LUMPUR, June 14 — A whopping RM1,758,432 was spent on developing six Facebook pages to promote Malaysian tourism, the Tourism Ministry said today. 

Deputy Tourism Minister James Dawos Mamit said this today in reply to a question from Anthony Loke (Rasah-DAP).

Each Facebook page cost RM293,072 — Cuti-Cuti 1 Malaysia, Citrawarna 1Malaysia, Karnival Jualan Mega 1 Malaysia, Festival Pelancongan Seni Kontemporari 1 Malaysia, Kempen 1 Malaysia Bersih and Fabulous Food 1 Malaysia.

The Citrawarna 1 Malaysia page has so far attracted 20,292 Facebook fans since it was launched on May 21.

Mamit said that the RM1.8 million included costs for designing, flash programming and coding, testing and debugging, uploading and launching the application, system server deployment and campaign management.

“You need RM1.8 million to run Facebook pages and applications? A six-year-old can start a Facebook page.

“If Datuk Seri Ng Yen Yen has problems getting people to help start Facebook pages, DAP headquarters can help her out, we have people who can develop these things at no cost,” Loke told reporters later at a press conference.

Loke said that unless Ng explained the reasons behind the “exorbitant” costs for the “social media branding” exercise by her ministry, he would lodge a report to the Malaysian Anti-Crimes Commission (MACC). - The Malaysian Insider

******

I was briefly involved in freelance web design process cycle with one of my ex-colleagues that was done as way of making an extra buck out of it and we actually have a rough idea how much these kind of service would cost, depending on requirements, the hosting facilities, the content required, and the time needed. This is then factored with the number of additional people required to complete that work. Back in 2008, we had done this kind of work before, and given of the need to have it ready by a month, we had a few extra hands in India side to help us out. And of course the final cost would wary on that.

At first, when the minister said that it cost RM1.8 million in total for those six Facebook pages, I was at first thinking that the minister has actually no idea of how much is the production cost of developing those pages. It's likely that since there's not many savvy people in IT in that department, it crossed my mind that they have no idea that it would be that high or otherwise. 

As what Anthony Loke was saying in Parliament, any person can create a Facebook fan page without a cost or even a small fee just to get it done professionally. A web page can cost more than that because there is also the annual cost of hosting (depending on the size) and domain name fee, creating other features and so forth. If you are creating a Facebook Fan Page (since it accommodates more than 5000 fans), you don't even need a domain name, no need database and a hosting since Facebook already has it already.

For those who are unsure how a fan page is created, you can view one of the sample guide sites on doing.The first link is a basic how to create a Facebook fan page, while this link has much details and tutorials on doing a fan page.

I decided to do some search via Facebook's search function and Google and it turns out that by entering those entries it turns out to be that some are not really Facebook fan page, but actual pages itself. For instance, confirmed non-Facebook pages are: 1Malaysia Green And Clean, Fabulous Food 1Malaysia, while Citrawarna 1Malaysia is confirmed to be a Facebook Fan Page. I suppose that the Tourism ministry website is also being counted on the RM 1.8 million work that is, since the last update was just today.

Thus, whatever that James Davos was replying in Parliament is not entirely accurate and can be tantamount to misleading the Dewan Rakyat on the information given. One argument about that thing was that he said all of those pages are Facebook fan pages, whereas it turns to be not all. For the cost factor, after looking onto the entire content, the cost for RM 293K per page is acceptable for the three non-Facebook pages, because it requires flashy content, high storage capacity, ability to update information on the go, search engine optimization and the number of people required to work on the website. 

So RM 293K X 3 = RM 879K.

The cost of working on 3 Facebook Fan pages is little fishy here, should cost a fraction of RM 293K. If that is the case, after calculating the above, I suppose that the balance of the RM 1.8 million spent would be on the advertising marketing campaign, in order to promote these six websites.

Unfortunately, at this time, there has been lack of information on the breakdown of costs. We don't know at this time whether there are at least two companies involved in working on those pages. One for design pages, another one for aggressive advertising. The one for designing pages was identified as Impact Creations Sdn. Bhd. There are several references to Tourism Ministry and Impact Creations, with several items related to like:Tourism Minister's Friend Admits Links To Company (referring to Juni Ewe). The rest can be seen on search results: 

Unfortunately, I didn't really agree entirely to some other people who wrote on this matter, including Paula - who wrote it 5 hours ago. But what is interesting on the matter is that politicians from both fronts (e.g Anthony Loke and Khairy) have been pushing for Ng Yen Yen to reveal for it opens the interest of everyone to find out more about the thing. And there must be an emphasis that the answer that James Dawos Mamit gave is not accurate in entire.

It Takes One National Scale Disaster For People To Wake Up

We have seen recently the 18 days of mass protests in Egypt, culminating with the resignation of Mubarak and the start of the road to election process due in September. It is clearly due to people power, the mass numbers and the refusal to buckle upon the pressure by regime authorities that threaten arrests for things we do that do not amount to crime that the government finally relent to pressure. The starting point comes from Tunisia, where the moment citizens reach the boiling point and could not stand any more, they decided to come down to the streets and protest, to get the government of the day's attention.

The Domino Effect

One nation after another, other nations have started to take cue from Tunisia and Egypt. The list includes Jordan, Yemen and now Algeria. The exhilaration of people power in both countries will turn that into a domino effect. Imagine of knocking a tile of domino and in turn will knock down thousands of it in a matter of few seconds. Of course, in the process, the hegemony of United States and Israel, coupled by the big two's quest for world domination would be disarrayed with mass revolutions. Fortunately, the response in Jordan towards mass people dissatisfaction was very fast and swift, with a well-educated ruler in King Abdullah sacking the existing government and appointed another one with the key condition of mass and swift reforms.

But before the spark starts, there must be a reason to explain why the people would go down to the streets to protest. Something that in mass scale that will enrage people from all kinds of society and race that eventually realized that it is time to change, time of one party hegemony is over and the old ties that bind will have to be broken down to make it better, a.l.a. house restoration. People in Arab have already awaken from the long slumber of false sense of reality.

Sense of omnipotence too play a part of a leader's downfall. Suharto, Murbarak and even Marcos ruled a country for more than 2 decades. Same thing over and over again, with nothing much to change upon and bad track record on reforms, human rights - and still the leader wants to preside over the country again and again - to when? When they die? 

Taib Mahmud could be following the same path, fate and situation as those three people. Having running Sarawak for 3 decades, isn't it time to go? Aren't angry over mass fortunes that he has that violate the priority of Sarawakians first before his own family? Aren't there many reports that express anger over the sense of his omnipotence?

There are some points that I agreed on Dr. Mahathir's recent laments, particularly on how not even a single Muslim country is well developed because mainly on many placing religion over main priorities. In fact, Dr Mahathir should also look into Malaysia as well - the direction is too following the problem above. Some similar cases can be noted here, except that Malaysia is still a secular country because of multi-racial population and the use of English-style Federal Constitution. As what the famous scholar Al-Qaradawi said that preserving freedom is more important than going too much religion that can spook people here.

The One Common Thing That Really Makes It Happen

If we have the analytical mind, we can find out the one common thing that triggers in all those nations involved in the people revolution: national-scale disaster. A disaster that can be felt by almost everybody from top to bottom.

Most of the nations mentioned in those cases are having national-scale disasters in the form of heavy unemployment, a very weak economy, mass inflation that makes the poor more poorer, unfair people treatments and discrimination and a few other things. This has been happening elsewhere many times before. Indonesia is the best case in point, where because of the Asian Financial Crisis, Indonesia has devalued the rupiah so severely to the point that people would not stand anymore of its impact - inflation, debts, etc.. , coupled by the bad human rights track record by Suharto that people have decided to go down to the streets to protest. It might be a different case in each country, like in Philippines,  Aquino Sr's assassination after a return from exile by agents of Marcos forced the people's hand - simply killing a respected opposition figure for means of eliminating the political threat causes mass protests because of bad human rights record.

In this age and time, there are two main themes that primarily be formed as part of a national disaster - an economy disaster on the national scale or a tragedy that makes people angry in following a bad human rights track record. The former is the worst because a country will not be able to run with mass debts hanging around the neck.

Having a big number of intellectuals - figures that spur people spirit against oppression in Egypt and in Tunisia also helped to spark people revolution there. These intellectuals have liberated minds. But these kind of minds are considered dangerous to some authoritarian regimes.

Will It Happen In Malaysia?

At this point of time, I don't really think the majority of Malaysians will wake up to the false sense of reality that is around us. The Tenang by-election - using the voter situations there illustrates the present state of reality in Malaysia.

The following excerpt is from Clarissa (taken from Loyar Burok):

Well, we probably should think of Malaysia and Malaysians as people living in the Matrix. They believe they have the freedom, that the economy will improve with all these economic transformation plans, that they can still enjoy material excess and progress, that they will continue to live in comfort. I think I have written about this more than a decade ago and the situation still has not changed, not one mite.

People are still lulled by a false sense of security, not understanding that the carpet will be pulled out from under their feet anytime, at any moment. They are not unlike North Koreans in general, minus the physical deprivation and visceral torture, because they believe in much of what is fed to them. The government is smart in creating a quasi welfare state, and in creating a false sense of us going somewhere, when in reality, we are just going in circles, as what I have seen from the time I was a freshman in college, more than a decade ago.

Tenang election clearly illustrates that. Kuala Selangor illustrates that. People are still lulled by false sense of security. In other words, we are still slumbering in false reality. And clearly, it will take a national disaster for people to really wake up the fact that there are many things that have already mislead us. Simply read any article on any Malaysian newspapers that involves any BN politicians / ministers and it tastes more of a feel good thing for government. (Notice that it's play nice with government and thrash the opposition style of writing). But sometimes, it is also equivalent to lying to yourself with such sentiment.

Answer? - Not likely until disaster strikes.

The One National-Scale Disaster That Could Happen in Malaysia

I clearly believe that the next national-scale disaster is neither political, nor natural in nature (e.g, floods). Instead the next one would be economical in nature.Malaysia's national debt stands at RM 577 billion and counting. The signs of trouble of a possible worldwide scale economic bubble burst are happening now and no nation will be spared from this problem the moment the economic bubble of China or America bursts. 

When the US Dollar is no longer accepted as the main reserve currency worldwide, America dies economically and the whatever US reserves we carry in Malaysia will no longer has value. It will become a paper money with no value. Therefore, the reserves that Malaysia hold, could go below zero and the deficit becomes higher since USD reserves would not be taken into account.

The ringgit could be possibly devalued again, subsidies could be totally removed. However I was really certain that this subsidy rationalization is part of a economic hit men suggestion. Indonesia's economic collapse was also due to economic hitmen. A confession by John Perkins in his Confessions of Economic Hitmen book revealed his part in Indonesia - advising "politikus" on various things with the ulterior motive of conning the nation, billions of money out. This is no doubt is what could be happening in Malaysia in the space of one to two years time.

Once part of the integrity of a foundation has been compromised, you can see how the chips fall and it will culminate in a national-scale disaster. Not even Perkasa who screams of Malay rights, not even political games, not even hero village attitudes will save Malaysia. This is a potential global scale disaster that can bankrupt Malaysia even before Idris Jala's 2019 bankrupt forecast.

Test Case on Mitigation

Is Malaysia ready for to mitigate such risk? Not likely and I don't really believe that Najib's administration has a solid plan at all. That was the conclusion I could get. A few days ago, I have decided to query a Member of Parliament in a forum that I participated. I did not ask anything that is political, but instead concentrated on economical question in nature since the forum topic deals with East Malaysia politics and economy. I posed a question whether he is aware of possible economic bubble burst in China and America. I stressed that the answer I was keen to here is purely on personal point of view.

The answer I got is that there is a concern for the China bubble, since America is considering of forcing China to increase the yuan rate to suit US. Military might and confrontation is definitely out of the way since neither side can win in provocation contest. 

Malaysia, unlike Singapore do not have the sufficient reserves to withstand the impact of the next upcoming economic collapse. Singapore is the opposite, with reserves standing close to $600 billion SGD, with only a fraction used for its stimulus package during the 2008 recession and its currency close to the value of the US, Australian and Canadian currencies. 

The other main question that I asked was whether Malaysia has sufficient safety nets for this situation. The reaction that I got from the YB seems to tell me that Malaysia doesn't have adequate measures, with the politicking still running around and the main party seem hell bent on annihilating the opposition before national priority on all aspects. Why would Perkasa even complaint about Anwar Ibrahim's alleged plan of escape where an economic meteor is hitting Malaysia, which takes precedence over other matters?

Conclusion: With incapable politicians running and handling  the economic policies coupling with corruption index rate that has yet to improve, Malaysia is not likely to withstand that disaster long-term. Even the warning by the PM on not letting the same thing happening in Egypt is not going to work anymore, so I think that having seen the letter written by one Eunice Wong from Seremban, I don't really think that will work as one factor that could cause that is due to the government's own failings and mismanagement.

After Waking Up, Too Late To Take Back

Most of the heads and rulers of the aforementioned Arab nations with their families are found to amass a big fortune. The Mubarak family has been amassing over $70 billion US dollars of assets in Egypt and in overseas. This allegation has in fact prompted the Swiss bank to freeze the accounts pending investigation. Likewise, in Tunisia, when the former president Ben Ali left, Leila, the young wife of Ben Ali ran with mass gold - the value can feed millions of poor Tunisians there. What is concerned that if people have successfully ousted oppressed regimes, the dictators and corrupt leaders in particular will take their fortune, that the government should have and returned to the people away. It's plundering we're talking about!

The story of how Leila's obsession and antics can be equaled to Rosmah's with both of them are in housewife-style of politics. Don't get what they want, and they would call their husbands, and lamenting like a child. Not only for the two women above, there are wives of leaders elsewhere that could fall in that category.

The saying of prevention is better than cure is not likely aware by many Malaysians in this case. There are a few scenarios to illustrate the above point: if the Opposition beats Barisan Nasional in the general elections by a big majority (corrupt and greedy leaders will attempt to plunder whatever they have before going, something like in Selangor where state docs are destroyed on the night of election, and they could go King Kong), or if there happens to be a revolution like in Arab that ended successfully with leaders thrown out.

Yes, we can wake up after disaster, but at what cost? There are things too late to be done, where if not for our own coward and ignorant citizens who still are in slumber in false reality. The country's attempt to rebuild the economy after the Asian Financial Crisis goes in vain again and it could take more than the same amount of time to rebuild the economy. If the government of the day still is BN by the time a disaster like that happen, the next four letter word that people would cuss on would not be "FUCK" but "UMNO"!

When The Dollar Dies

Maybe nobody in the government is keen to listen about the destined demise of the US Dollar and the need to keep its reserves. The death of the dollar will be a domino effect as the moment the currency dies, whatever that Malaysia holds will become toilet paper and worthless. Period.

There is the obsession of saying that no one should touch on managing the economy apart from one main party that is Barisan Nasional, but are they really aware of this problem looming around?

There would be hyperinflation soon. Which is why they need to stock up in non-Dollar assets.

Living In The World of Red Margin a.k.a Deficit

The Auditor-General's report for 2009 was critical lashing. The country deficit as of last year was at RM363 billion, which is 53% GDP. I recalled that the Central Bank's estimate amount of national financial reserves (gold, USD, international currency reserves) as of June 2010 was at close to RM 400 billion. This means that if we decide to settle all debts for 2009, we can scarcely have about RM 30 billion of reserves, which we could go bust earlier than expected, as what Idris Jala said sometime back (he said bust by 2019).

The projected debts for 2010 is estimated to be at around RM 410 billion. As of 30 September, the amount of reserves recorded by BNM was at RM 310 billion, largely due to the strengthening of the Ringgit against the dollar (when converted to the present rate). If the amount is used to pay up, this means we are already in the red zone of -RM100 billion, twice the amount owed if the present amount of reserves are used vs 2009's deficit. Based on the current deficit, each of the 28 million citizens (even a child and old citizens) will have to pay RM 14000 to balance the country's account books.

The two things that the Auditor-General was critical about:

1. How a chunk of the stimulus money was spent on things that are not justified as of the original purpose.

2. Delays and red tapes in projects resulted in cost overruns

I don't really know department heads or civil heads are entrusted the stimulus money but instead used it to buy lavishly. I am still scratching my head wondering why a department would pay RM 224 for a tool kit whereas you can get one outside for a quarter of a price. Is it possible that  the additional money (outside actual cost and set amount of profit) is a kickback and patronage money to those who demand a share but has no active involvement in it?

Secondly, there's some unrealistic planning there, as highlighted in the 8 abandoned projects in Perak (as an example). Now this is the downside of direct negotiations because, you may never know that the contractor (if you take the direct negotiation approach) could be slack in approach. One thing good about the open tender as what the opposition has been screaming about is that on the psychological side, it encourages vendors to compete with one another (demands strong physical, methodology, work ethics, and etc..) as to see who comes the best of the lot. The spirit of competition, as like in sports is already there in the working world.

Haven't we learned things from what ex-economic hitman John Perkin's said of those having mega projects is actually a way to con a country of monies and making it bankrupt? Didn't I mention that the slew of projects under the ETP is a dangerous double-edge sword, like a house of cards? If the projects get abandoned halfway, given the fact that the total amount required of ETP is RM 1.4 trillion, then do we realize that Malaysia could go bust here?

The American credit crisis is all for us to see and it is fortunate that we get caught in the later stages (consider it as sneeze that spreads to other people later). The old idea of spending more might not work anymore (the Keynes approach). At this time of uncertainty, why would banks keep promoting their products when people are having trouble with money? It clearly shows that they already have a lot of money in hand and they want to wave to people about taking up loans that they are willing? This is right now living in the world of red margin. I thought for a moment..since big banks have a lot of money to give away (a.k.a loans), why not give an amount to the government to finance the ETP? After all, top banks (non-GLC related) are being among the 62 percent (private sector) to finance the program, right?

At this time, we noticed that the government is not handling the finances well. Too much corruption has slipped from its fingers. And as according to Malaysiakini, corruption has screwed the targets related t o this under the GTP program. But BN says, only they can run the country given of the past record. But look at what is happening around us, and you still expect them to carry on? Come on, get real. Use your common sense when the situation, not when the party demands it! 

We should be forewarned that Malaysia's bankruptcy is happening sooner than the projected 2019 because nothing can go according to the estimations.

The PLUS Bidding Battle

1. In the last two weeks, we have noticed of a much publicized and intensed bidding battle for Projek Lebuhraya Utara Selatan (being the operator of the North South Expressway) and a few other highways as well. One party consists of Asas Serba (run by ex-Renong man Halim Saad and partner of for Finance Minister Daim Zainuddin), another is MMC (Syed Mokhtar Bulkhary) in partnership of the EPF. To get PLUS, either one must do a complete buyout of UEM (United Engineers Malaysia).

2. Recalling the proposals: MMC's proposal is a $15.6 billion ringgit deal with 10% cut on all toll rates with no increments until the end of the extended concessionaire period in 2038. Asas Serba's deal is similar to MMC but $50 billion on all 25 highways in the Peninsular and a 20% toll rate cut across the board. Khazanah / EPF's $23 billion offer never mention what sweetener that they can put except that EPF members stand to get additional dividends from the revenues generated by PLUS.

3. Khazanah is very much against the proposals from Mahathir's business partners. They believe that it leaves the toll concessionaire at the mercy of government demands to cut toll rates. The problem for the other two tycoons, (S.M and H.S) the business connections with the government is not as great as when Mahathir was in charge. Another reason, as quoted by a government official is that "Keeping it public will ensure that the government will not simply ask to cut toll rates as that can affect share price and the bottomline. Taking it private will open it up to pressure as there is no share price to affect.”

4. Once Khazanah / EPF completes the buyover of UEM, as per what Najib announced in last Friday's budget that there will be no toll increase for the next 5 years, the government could be seeing a freeze bill of $7.5 billion ringgit by 2015. In other words, there is no compensation paid to PLUS over the 10 year period. The last increase of toll was in 2005.

The current rate per kilometer in the NSE is 13.60 sen.
The 2002-2005 rate per kilometer in the NSE was at 12.36 sen (10% hike announced on 16 Dec 2004)
The 1999-2002 rate per kilometer in the NSE was at 11.24 sen (10% hike announced end of 2001)
The 1996-1999 rate per kilometer in the NSE was at 10.

Based on the present agreement, the next increase would be another 30% as to compensate 10 years of unpaid compensations to PLUS by the government. In other words,it would be 17.68 sen by 2016. And what's more, at that time, there will be another 22 years more to go before the concessionaire period ends.

5. The concessionaire period was extended twice due to the "Decade Bubble" - the economic bubble that bursts every 10 years. In 1997, it's the Asian Financial Crisis. In 2007, it's the global sub-prime crisis. As the result, because of the A.F.C, the first concessionaire period was extended by another 12 years (to 2030). Another extension resulted in the period extended by another 8 more years to its present agreement. Now that we notice that the Decade Bubble happens every 10 years, the next can happen within 2017. If it happens, is the concessionaire period going to be extended again?

Again, this is based on the present concessionaire agreement.

6. If we take this events in face value, surely we would go for the MMC / Asas Serba deal if the option is given to the public because of the big carrot is being a 10-20% reduction of toll across the board and no toll increase until the end of the concessionaire period. Also, with the immediate reduction, we can see a investment recuperation in a shorter than expected period of ROI. That's because the reduction of the toll would see higher volume of people travelling on the expressways, NSE in particular. The one that stands to smile more would be the businessmen and transportation carrier operators (including those transporting essential goods).

I find that scenario is the classic case of picking the lesser of two evils. Between evil one that allows space in and out despite a bad scenario against a bad scenario with no way out in the long run, which one would you take?

7.  Khazanah, is the one who decides who goes or not. Why it rejects the other two offers outright in that kind of wheel-dealing is something I find it not right and "sinister". We all know that the one who calls the shot is the head himself Azman Mokhtar (A.P King). But of course another key-figure whose hand is part of the wheel-dealing is obviously Nazir, Najib's younger brother. I remembered someone quoting Azman saying something like, "Ini semua kepentingan rakyat dan negara. Tak boleh jual sewenang-wenangnya." (It's all important for the people and country. Can't be sold that simply!).

But what is at stake here is that if S.M or H.S gets it, Nazir would have the trouble of getting more projects and money in the pocket. The MRT project due to start next year is already in the pocket. One reason of rejecting would be to give the picture that CIMB is bankrolling majority of projects. EPF, (since he's a member of the investment panel) is pushed into projects with Nazir's clients.

Many are unhappy, from people in Finance Ministry, EPF and a few, of Nazir's wheel-dealing tactics. The one who is the worst of it would be the outgoing EPF chairman himself.

I saw something interesting from this blog (setup not that long ago). The below excerpt caught interest:

10. Worse still Nazir feels slighted by Dr Mahathir and has started a campaign to discredit the former pm and block any investments from Mahathir's cronies like Syed Mokhtar and Daim Zainuddin.
 
11. To go to war with Dr Mahathir, he has the help of his good friend Khazanah boss Azman Mokhtar. 

12. Azman will block Syed Mokhtar's bid for UEM and has also blocked Daim's move to privatise PLUS.

13. Nazir is upset Dr Mahathir blasted him for questioning the NEP. 

14. He is also upset that mahathir has started digging up info on the billions in fees cimb has made in pushing deals at the expense of the country. 


Perhaps this would backup the idea why S.M and H.S's bids got turned down outright.


8.If the proposal goes public, which one would you agree most? Is it a worthwhile investment as what many business analysts claim to be or otherwise? You be the judge, and have your say below.

Budget 2011

1. The first and foremost thing about the 2011 budget is that though there are some interesting points mentioned that touches on an individual, it didn't really addresses more on people-centric despite it being billed "people's budget" by Najib. For instance, the minimum wage matter that trade unions have be clamoring for countless of times, only for the government to say "at a later date", which means that the government has no solutions at this time to address the problem by middle and lower class workers. Secondly, it is not compatible with the NEM, giving that the NEM that Najib himself taked about is mere lip service and talk only.

2. It seems that there are signs of the Big Mama's demand inside the budget, which includes RM 111 million for PERMATA, and the abolishment of the import duty for selected goods. The latter, a lot of people know of Rosmah's tendencies to go shopping for expensive items when on overseas tour. At one time, we remembered her buying a lot of expensive watches for a huge astronomical sum of people's money. We too loved the sarcasm that the MPs belted out when Najib mentioned that. "Aha, Rosmah!" that's what the PR MPs would exclaim about.

I recalled that in the past no wife of a Finance Minister would come in and interfere with the shape of the Budget. Not even Mahathir, Anwar, Ku Li (the previous Finance Ministers) and others. The Treasury people too, (as reported last year) admitted that they are uncomfortable of Rosmah running things around, acting as if she is a government official, whereas her capacity is only being the wife of the PM.

3. I have viewed through some highlights of the budget. Not much on dealing individually. Among some notable points of interest:

a) Highway tolls - Rates on hold for the next 5 years. Expect an increment more than 10 percent by 2015 as to compensate the compensation paid to PLUS and other toll concessionaires . It seems that Khazanah is not willing to let its competitors (Mahathir's business partners, e.g Syed Mokthar or Halim Saad) MMC or Asas Serba win the buyout of UEM although their offer is great and the sweetener to the deal - no increase of toll rates until the end of the concession period in 2038. 

Skepticism would be on how they are willing to finance their money for the buy out. Now that Khazanah and EPF wants to buy out UEM at $23 billion, is it possible for the other two to stop that and increase their bid higher than 23 billion? Or another way to win that bid that Najib cannot refuse? One good reason that people can figure it out is that Nazir Razak (CIMB CEO) is not likely to get the pot of gold - projects if Mahathir's partners gets most.

b) First time house buying - Buying house in Klang Valley is a bit difficult. Due to the fluctuation of property prices from speculation, most house prices would be at the median of RM 400K which means that still young and middle-income people will have the difficulty of buying houses there. The maximum estimate price of RM350 K mentioned would fit properties within suburban areas - outside Klang Valley / Penang island for example. Yet it still lacks the solutions to handle this dilemma. In the economic turbulence of 2008, the rental rates in Klang Valley dropped by at least 20% only to rebound back recently. Unless, (by some stupid idea) - they sell to young people at half price.

c) Exemption of sales tax for handphones - Does that mean that all prices now will be 10 percent less? Maybe we need to tell the merchants that you will be paying 10 percent less because of the exclusion of sales tax. 

d) Removal of import duty for goods - The budget did not mention the complete list of what goods that fall under that action. It is hoped that there would be a complete list of items that fall under that case. And what about consumer technological items? It would be a good idea to have those fall under that removal of duty because this would increase the rate of affordability for people to get an item at a good price as well as catching up with the technology. Singapore and Australia, among our Aisan neighbours are technologically far advanced ahead of us. 

e) Service tax increment to 6% - This is obvious to compensate the GST that is put on hold. It is also another way to increase revenue to the government coffers. But to have 6% in this current times of low income and hardly any increment means that it could create more trouble for people to pay in places where service tax is applicable, unless Customs Department (which Sales Tax 1975 is under their purview) increases the income cap to RM 750K or RM 1 mil per month. 

4. The budget is built on assumptions that the GDP for 2011 will be at 7%. However, Malaysia still has a huge amount of deficit since the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis. When calculating total cumulative debts with reserves available, Malaysia has no more reserves already. Yet, to go ahead with the such budget with tons of mega projects is like staking a country in the house of cards. And a house of cards is not stable. It can collapse with a sneeze from elsewhere. Where can Malaysia get money if income tax revenue, FDI investment drying up and corruption still rampant? The one possible solution is like the US to print money. In turn, printing money means of borrowing money from other countries, increasing the national debt. The U.S's national debt stands at $1.6 trillion US as of now. The more money being printed, the higher the debt the nation would be plunged into. 

5. Let's look at the slew of mega projects proposed under the budget:

• Mass Rapid Transit System: RM 43 billion transportation system for Kuala Lumpur and surrounding. Question: How is this project being funded and will the federal govt guarantee the funding?

• Kuala Lumpur International Financial District: This is a RM26 billion 34 hectares development in the Jalan Davis bordering the Imbi area which was earlier mistaken for the old Sungei Besi airbase project. A 1Malaysia Development Berhad joint venture with the Abu Dhabi Mubadala group.

• Warisan Merdeka: Another iconic landmark mega-development of RM 5 billion to be completed by 2015. Another project to be undertaken by Permodalan Nasional Berhad (PNB). This project covering an area of 15 hectares in the old Stadium Merdeka and Stadium Negara surrounding will include the 100 storey tallest building in Malaysia.

• Sungei Buloh development: Land privatization development owned by the Rubber Research Institute (RRI) of an area of 1350 hectares to be develop by EPF Employees Provident Fund with a value of RM10 billion.

• Nexus Karambunai, Sabah: An integrated eco-nature resort development at a cost of RM 3 billion. Question: RM3 billion to build a resort is a huge sum, is the federal govt providing the funds?

Now we also look at the slew of budget allocations:

Education: For Restructuring and Strengthening RM 29.3 billion to the Education Ministry. RM 10.2 billion for the Higher Education Ministry and RM 627 million for the Human Resource Ministry.

·        Education: Another RM 6.4 billion to build and upgrade schools and etc.

·        Health: RM 15.2 billion for new hospitals and etc.

·        Defence: Allocated a total budget of RM 9.1 billion which is a reduction from RM 10.5 billion.

·        Corridor: RM 850 million for infrastructure support to the corridor and regional development.

·        1Malaysia Training Program: Allocation of RM 500 million. What’s this?

·        RM 1 billion allocated for the launching of the Bumiputra Property Trust Foundation. (No details provided).

  

Don't forget the slew of projects started but in incubation or in hangover:

• 160 hectares old Sungei Besi air base with an estimated value of RM 20 billion which has generated much stories of Jho Low, the bright young man seen as companion to Paris Hilton having had a hand in this much coveted mega multi billion project.

• Another mega-project of the 150 hectares of Kampung Baru land within the city centre of Kuala Lumpur, and PNB is again undertaking the redevelopment of over RM 20 billion in value.

• Riverside Garden City a 25 hectares redevelopment of the former Pekeliling Flats with the proposed futuristic revolving 60 storey skyscraper with a value of RM 12 billion.

• 9 hectares of government land in the Cochrane and
  Peel Road
  area with an estimated value of RM 10 billion to be develop again by 1MDB and EPF.

More multi billion projects that have been approved and about to be started or in progress like:

• MATRADE centre with 25 hectares of land in the Jalan Duta area to be undertaken by the Naza Group estimated at RM 15 billion value.

• Platinum Park in KLCC also by Naza Group that will incorporate the new iconic Felda Towers and a new Naza Towers. This is a development of RM 5 billion now under construction.

• Old Pudu Prison of 8.5 hectares with a value of RM 5 billion scheduled to start work by early 2011 to be developed by UDA Holdings Berhad.

• Eco City with 10 hectares of DBKL land next to Mid Valley City with a value of RM 6 billion to be jointly developed by another GLC of SP Setia Bhd and DBKL.

• On going KL Sentral of 30 hectares land with a value of RM 12 billion being developed by Malaysian Resources Corporation Berhad.

With the number of hangover projects in hand, the Najib administration is going a bridge too far. Past projects was never taken into account, probably because of kickbacks, red tapes and etc. When you count together the amount of allocations and project costs coupled the amount from the hangover project, the cost is more. And yet the Najib administration is still going for it, making whatever they are doing a very huge gamble. Like in a high stakes poker game, the risk of losing is very high, meaning if there is another global economic bubble bang happening soon, the house of cards would collapse and Najib's mega projects would go under the drain.

5. Brazil Finance Minister Guido Mantega declared on 27 September that a world currency war has broken out already. America is facing the trouble of a weakening US dollar and on the worst case scenario, expect dollar devaluation. In fact the problem could start as early as December. The US dollar could drop as low to $45. In addition to that, expect higher inflation and collapse worse than the 1929 Great Depression in the scope will hit worldwide. Malaysia has no reserves to cushion the impact of such scenario but is still pushing for those projects. It is high time for Malaysia to start reducing its dependence on Western investment as to cushion the possible hit. All those measures like preferential programs and the protectionist fees in buying cars will likely have to go if government does not want people to get economically injured more when the time comes. 

6. The 100-story Warisan Merdeka project is a very foolish idea to do it. It also takes billions of ringgit, which in turn can be used to help the people. These remarks below:

“We take pride in our national icon, the Petronas Twin Towers. It signifies the spirit of Malaysia Boleh. Another landmark to be developed by PNB is Warisan Merdeka, expected to be ready by 2020″ -  Najib

“…everybody wants a tallest tower. Shanghai and Taiwan want more, so why should we hold back?…The most important thing is that we can do it. Why should we hold back?…The building serves to balance Malaysia’s traditional cultures and pursuit for modernity. This will put Malaysia on the tourist map” – Tourism Minister Dr Ng Yen Yen

“The nation must have a dream. We had the Twin Towers and KLCC. Now, the 100-story building will be the new ‘Malaysia boleh’. This is good because we all need to dream. All these projects that are coming under the Great Kuala Lumpur plan and other mega-projects will bring in foreign investors that will spur the economy,” – Deputy Minister in the Prime Minister’s Department SK Devamany

Don't these people have better idea to handle that 5 billion rather than building another landmark that we already have in place like KLCC and KL Tower? I find that whoever says yes to that thing is like ala zombies, follow the leader only, yes man..as what these two are indirectly showing. 

7. Summary and conclusion - Malaysia's ambition of going for more mega projects at the time of turbulence is a very unwise move. As what John Perkins said in his book, only an economic hitmen would advise them to go for more mega projects. Subsidy reduction is another measure that they would suggest. But people do not know that this measure means cheating people of their hard-earned money. And in the end, if the country falls economically, the people will lose big and the economic hitmen wins with the swindled money. Najib is gambling high stakes poker here.

Flawed Policies and Laws: Human Psychology Factor Missing In Account Like The Proposed Copyright Act Amendment

KUALA LUMPUR: Buyers of pirated DVDs and VCDs will be fined five times the price of the genuine products once the Copyright Act is amended.

Domestic Trade, Cooperatives and Consumerism Minister Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob (Ayah Dafi) said the ministry was hoping to table the proposal for first reading in Parliament, in the coming sitting beginning next week.

"Currently, the Act only allows us to take action against pirated DVD sellers but not those who buy these products.

"We hope that with the amendment to the Act, we will be able to curb the piracy issue in the country," he told reporters after attending the Intellectual Property Corporation of Malaysia Hari Raya open house here Thursday.

On how the ministry would carry the enforcement once the Act was amended and whether house-to-house raids would be conducted, Ismail Sabri said the details were being planned.

He said the ministry would also work with the Malaysian Communications and Multimedia Commission (MCMC) to stop illegal downloading from the Internet.

"We will work with MCMC to see if we can bar those involved in illegal downloading from accessing the Internet," he said.

Ismail Sabri said another amendment of the Copyright Act would also involve the collection of royalty.

"The Act will be amended to make it compulsory for all companies which collect royalty payments to register with our ministry.

"There must also be an agreement between these companies and the artistes involved to allow the former to collect the royalty," he said.

He said other intellectual property related laws like the Industrial Design Act, Patent Act and Trademark Act were also scheduled to be tabled for first reading in the coming Parliament sitting.

In April, Deputy Prime Minister Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin had said the amendments would not only tighten the enforcement of intellectual property rights but also protect small and medium enterpreneurs as well as the creative and entertainment industry. - The Star (7 October 2010)

***

Note: In this article, I will refer Sabri Yaakob as Ayah Dafi since Dafi is his son who won AF5 reality show. 

I have seen a few articles on how the Malaysian authorities would use hard-man, hard fist style tactics like that above to combat problems in the country.The article above is an example of how a hard-fist approach is used to deal with the problem that is besetting Malaysia. After a while if you seat down and think hard on this situation, you would realize that it is virtually impossible to combat such crime. Some people would come to realize that such approach and policy to be implemented is deeply flawed because there is one key factor that is missing in the writing of law: human psychology.

Failure to Understand Human Psyche

It is very essential to understand the human psyche and the reason of them acting when dealing those problems. In this case of the piracy problem, there was a lack of viewing from the perspective of the person who would be buying a product labeled "pirated" by authorities and the entertainment industry. In this case, Malaysia is not a high-income country yet. Poverty rate is still above the actual norm lines. Some people don't like censorship. Some people could afford even RM50 to buy a movie title or music CD (genuine) from shops. Video shops might not have that title they are looking for and so forth.

We can go through one or two examples to illustrate why human psychology factor was missing in the approaches of solving problems in this country. For example:

1. Why are there phone booth vandalism?

Answer: Some people who are poor who wants to dig up coins to buy food to feed their hunger. Money collectors don't come routinely and on time to collect the money in the box, instead it is left to go overflow.

2. What is the genesis of a mat rempit?

Answer: Youngsters who have motorbikes who have the desire and the yearning to be free from the shackles of controls of old paranoid men and parents who do not understand them at all. These young men, are not rich people, and mostly they are not able to afford money to buy even a single car due high protectionism amount included into the final cost of car sold in Malaysia. If they can't get a car, motorcycle would be the next best thing of mode of transport. The national economy state also forms part of the genesis. If they do not buy motorcycles, sales from manufacturers of motorcycles would be abysmal. A weak public transport system also forms part of the reason and in fact forms the biggest reason such existence. Lack of public transport planning in both city and rural areas tends to frustrate many people in as a resort.

Many come from poor environments. Not the kind of comfort houses, but hut style houses (e.g Pantai Dalam) , getting out from stuffy environments, lacking the chance to compete in real proper motorcycling races. Or perhaps from jobs that don't give them much income - that's the problem of not having minimum salary clauses.

Therefore, it is wrong for the police and the IGP to say that all mat rempits are violent and behave like gangsters. This means, you cannot simply do a hard-fist action on them at all times hoping that will solve the problem. No, it is a 50-50 likelihood that starting a hard-fist action can make them do it again and again that will disregard the law at all. Notice that from their point of view and feelings, that they do not take kindly into police as like parents putting a brakes into something that they are in the middle of doing something.

If there is a better way to solve the problem, Hishamuddin Rais proposed this: (and Subramaniam the Human Resources Minister has to do it immediately, no excuses!)

Apakah betul kerajaan ada keinginan untuk memperbaiki hidup mereka?

Jika jujur dan berniat baik maka : Susun dan tubuhkan kesatuan pekerja di semua pasar raya. Tubuhkan kesatuan sekerja untuk semua pekerja di Seven Eleven, di Giant, di Tesco , di MacDogal, di Burger King, di warong-warong Rehat Lebuh Raya Utara Selatan. Pastikan mereka yang memburuh ini bukan hanya menjadi kuli batak untuk pemodal antarabangsa. Pastikan anak anak muda yang merempit ini dibayar selumayan mungkin. Pastikan mereka tidak ditindas dengan gaji yang kecil. Wujudkan gaji minama untuk seluruh buruh pekerja.

Ini baru langkah tepat yang mendahulukan warga. Bukan mendahulukan keuntungan untuk pemodal.

Jangan hanya pandai menghina anak anak muda yang merempit sebagai wabak. Mereka bukan penyakit. Mereka adalah sebahagian dari kita. Mereka adalah anak semua bangsa. Jangan hanya pandai mengutuk dan menangkap.

Coming back to the Copyright Act amendment, it is virtually impossible to eradicate technology piracy completely. No matter what are the measures to be taken, even if they want to sent buyers to jail, in Malaysia, it will only serve to anger more people, particularly the poor. True, it will anger other parties as well. A few months ago, vice-president of Universal Music International, Francis Keeling, clearly admitted of such impossibility.

Quote from BBC (18 May 2010):

"We've got markets like Spain and Italy, where [people say] 'You buy music? What are you doing buying music when you can get it for free?' 

"Clearly those markets are in the situation where, unless we can turn those markets around, we're going to have a major problem having a music business there."

 

Proponents of anti-piracy laws even including Ayah Dafi blame much of the piracy from P2P clients used such as bit torrent. However, what Ayah Dafi does not know about it is that by saying that is tantamount to declaring chairs as illegal. He also doesn't know that it is also a new way of companies doing content distribution, selling software via digital download without having the need to produce hard-copies and CDs to be sold and distributed to their customers.  

At this point of time, it is unrealistic to go busting illegal downloaders unless other problems that cause this phenomenon are solved first before going for the last. 

Dinesh Nair wrote a view in The Malaysian Insider date 15 June 2010, in which I concur with the rest which augments one of my arguements. Excerpt:

Both the ministry and the minister fail to see that bittorrent and P2P can instead be put to better use. Flood it with legal content not otherwise available through normal channels. Independent film and music producers and directors have long faced barriers in getting their films to viewers, no thanks to the middlemen and channels which control the distribution chain now. Read: aforementioned recording and movie companies. Releasing a film to be seeded on bittorrent is one such way of bypassing this control, and it is no wonder the MDs of these companies are worried. They do not want to lose their mojo in deciding what you and I get to see or hear.

Blocking P2P on the network or even banning P2P users from accessing the network is not going to work either. It would be trivially simple for people to utilise servers outside the country to download P2P content, and then hop it back into Malaysia using regular web or FTP connections. This would make the bandwidth asymmetry much worse in addition to making any such ban ineffective. Given the cost of internet access now, this scenario would possibly make it worse.

Reversing content download from outside the country is paramount, and P2P helps in that if used correctly. Banning the technology for what some people do on it is myopic, but instead we need to look at the real reasons why piracy happens and address those. The short and curly of it is that the content is just priced too high and people do not see the value in it. However, by giving viewers a better experience (saw Avatar in 3D didnt you?), content producers can recover any revenue they may have lost. But innovation is important in achieving this.

One cannot keep shovelling the same drivel and expect the consumer to keep paying more for it. Nor blame a useful technology in order to retain control over a distribution system which has gone stale.

I truly appreciate efforts of some parties to have open source technology since it is free of charge, and it can be improved by everyone. Everyone is welcomed to contribute and add to the existing content. Which is why, many technological solutions are now leaning towards open source and it is favored by companies who do not have the big amount of budget and resources to develop and manufacture their solution / product. The problem is that big brand products licensing fee (annually) is very expensive, especially in a big organization and when you convert US dollars to ringgit, which at this point of time, still unfavorable even though it is just above the 3.00 level.

For example, Adobe Flex, single license costs $700 USD, or RM 2200 approx. The amount would be exponential if 100 (no bulk special price) units are ordered and to be used by a medium-level organization. If such budget is unacceptable, but requirement of working mandates that use of product, having to use a pirated copy is the very last resort that companies will have to do.

Putting a block or regulating Internet is equivalent to against Mahathir's assurance of no Internet control when the MSC started at the end of the 1990s. A sinister agenda that some believe about such moot for regulation (mentioned a few days ago by Rais Yatim) is that of identifying content that do not speak the same language as the government even though there is a valid reason of not saying the same thing.

Outdated and inflexible Malaysian censorship

Even if the government wants to block connections to ISP over an offense of illegal downloading, people would still find other ways to get what they want. Even pirates would find another way to around without facing the music.

The censorship laws in Malaysia remains unrealistic and people who do not like the censorship (since it disrupts viewing with mute sounds, sudden cuts etc) would definitely look somewhere else outside official sources to get the uncut content. 

The one that suffers mostly from unrealistic Malaysian censorship would be independent mediamakers themselves. Their artistic vision will be chopped down due to inflexible rules, outdated ones or otherwise and things that do not make sense at all. I am told recently that tax breaks were not given even though if a movie is shot entirely in Malaysia largely because of the Bahasa Malaysia requirement. Language condition should be secondary, it should instead be given as an additional tax break, not a clause that people might not agree upon. Also, independent films were not given opportunity for proper marketing. The bulk of media marketing would be hogged giant international studios. When this happens, coupled with unrealistic censorship laws and ratings, Malaysia can never showcase its unique media to real giants even though they get attention from other international circuits. India, whose income is lower than us also gets spotlight in Hollywood due to its Bollywood culture craze.

Did Malaysia give tax breaks to the studio that produced Anna and The King since it's shot in Batu Gajah and Penang?

An article titled The Price of Censorship sums up what I too wish to convey.

Hard-Fist Approaches Won't Work, Ayah Dafi

Recently, having returned from holiday in Australia, the cigarette packs there adopt a different and more positive approach in tackling smoking problems. Instead of displaying all the negative signs of smoking (showing damaged organs in autopsy sessions), smokers are coerced and get to call the quit smoke hotline and counseling that can encourage them to gradually go away from smoking (a more positive and humane approach). It is also a win-win situation, where counseling also creates jobs for people who like to do sweet talk but can't get a job in sales outside.

One way to combat that piracy is to have more video and music rental shops all around town. You can rent a title for a small amount of money, also beneficial that those who don't want to buy but want to listen / watch. There should be a chain of such shops that should be operated by those who have the unique business skill, not those who only know basics only, which in turn can help reduce the problem in a more better approach.

When I was in Singapore, I asked a family friend of mine, of such low prices in purchasing televisions (brand new) and media players. My first answer was maybe because manufacturers have their factories there as well, reducing the cost, but what was missing is that

Now what Ayah Dafi may or may not know is that in that process, if Ayah Dafi wants to send little fishes to prison, government may have to build a bigger prison and indirectly, the volume of little fishes, instead of hardcore criminals who commit more violent crimes are put into prison over crimes deem petty in moral grounds. The bottom line is that any social-related policy or law that is to be implemented cannot simply go on without taking human psyche factor and understanding it into account.

In short, many policies and laws like Police Act, UUCA Act and even this proposal are flawed and outdated because ministers and politicians didn't take human psyche and psychology into consideration. There was a saying, to manipulate a man is a careful project. Move a man lightly, and he moves at his whim. Move a man harder and he would turn against you. 

The AES System In Malaysia part 1

Part 1 - The Ulterior Motives

One of the most talked about subjects at this time and in the last one year or so is the implementation of the upcoming Automated Enforcement System in Malaysia. Obviously, it is hoped that the automated system will eliminate the need of having police personnel monitoring the heavy-usage roads / roads that are identified as frequent accident zones as well as improving enforcement that cannot be done by manual means.

However, despite the purpose of usage, I noticed that there are more cons, in the sense of ulterior motives that are behind the intention of using this. I've read a good piece from this link detailing about the problems if the enforcement system goes ahead. CASSA has already stated its protest  onto that.

There are some ulterior motives we can identify from this matter:

1. Every vehicle is required to switch license plates to the plates containing the RFID chips embedded into it. The concept is very similar to our very own passports. The chips are linked to the scanner readers that AES cameras will read whenever a vehicle goes underneath the scanning radius of an AES camera. The camera will pick data to determine whether the vehicle is committing a road offence or not. However, the cost of replacing license plates is depending on who is the supplier and contractor. If the contractor is a somewhat Class-F contractor, expect the cost of upgrading to be much pricier than replacing it at any motor shop if required to be done in a PUSPAKOM place.

Cost would be the poser: Suppose doing in any motor shop costs RM 80 including workmanship, could it be that the cost of doing it by official lines could be RM150? This means we're making a close to a two fold profit. From what I understood, a critic said sometime last week the purchasing price of a equipment, project etc.. was at least 40% more than a buying the same piece of equipment of same quality. Could it be hidden costs that were added as to say give additional kickbacks to cronies?

Some of us do know that the amount of national reserves in our country is still at a precarious, dangerous and low level. There might not be enough left in the coffers. With the football betting license pulled back, the government is desperately looking for other means besides all forms of taxes duties as source of income. What more can be than having hidden costs that could be possibly a way to solve this?

2. My most important concern is that if this technology is being misused and abused, this technology could be turned into the worst weapon - privacy invasion. Obviously this system will raise concerns from privacy movements and in the worst case scenario, whatever you do, while not in the car, the system could become the eyes and ears of those in corridors of power, and thus it could violate the basic human rights freedom that a citizen is entitled to. Since that the AES system could be used based on Israeli-based technology, not the homegrown technology that a bidder has submitted to the police force, there is also a possibility that it can be used by other countries to spy on other countries.

3. I do believe in conspiracy theories, including those entities / secret cabals are using technology like this to control the population. This is obviously connected to the previous point. But this would be the ultimate goal of the new world order there. The concept of Big Brother is always being around there, but the problem right now is that our government leaders either do not know that there has been external penetration from outside forces or they do know but deliberately do that to save their asses.

4. In order for the enforcement system to be implemented several changes had to be made to the enforcement act, with the proposals drew flak from every people. The main fault in the proposed changes is that the policymakers didn't take human psychology into account. Answers to common questions like why cars are parked illegally, why people speed at times, was there something that necessitate them to commit a road offence and etc.. This is not the only time where such case happens. This also happens in the proposed amendment of the Copyright Act that Ayah Dafi was proposing.

True, I have to agree of Say No To AES. But I heard that the system implementation could be postponed due to legal wrangling.

To be continued...