Rest Assured Hudud Won't Happen, Mathematically

It's already three weeks that I have not written anything in here. I have been in a roller coaster state (emotionally up and down) that I didn't have the feeling to write the things in mind. In fact this has been one of those things that I've tried to say. Given of the MCA chest-thumping antics yesterday, I am certain that I am not afraid and certain that hudud implementation won't be happening in decades to come or not at all. It's just the same thing as UMNO would tell the Malays as this as the boogeymen to the Chinese.

Apart from that issue above that the MCA (Porn Star and co) keeps screaming about, they don't really talk substance such as governance. All the time they talked about defending the Chinese - but against who really? Communism is no longer in Malaysia for many decades. World War II was over for close to 70 years - so absolutely nothing but to scare people out of the blue. So I heard that when MCA decides to follow suit as UMNO of sacking alleged party saboteurs in the general election, it gives the same body language as with UMNO: they are not confident of their own party members.

The porn star by the name of Chua Soi Lek and his entourage of stooges remains ridiculed, while they keep flogging the dead horse because even if they talk about the dangers or so, they are actually and will still remain stooges of the big brother lynchpin of UMNO. Given of the Chua's relationship with Muhyiddin being boss-bagmen since the latter's days as Johor MB, it is no doubt that this eventually be what will it be even if the Chinese were swayed by tempting words to support them.

But that thing above is not important and I just want to get straight to the point that nobody has to be afraid of their boogeyman talk of hudud thing. 

By virtue, any amendment to the Federal Constitution requires 148 parliamentarians (out of 222) to say yes to a motion of amendment. However, for cases involving religion and royalty matters specified in the constitution, the number of yes hands is not 148 - but 168! 

In other words for special matters, 75% majority is required in the house. But this is only the first hurdle in amendment. Based on probability, it is not likely to happen. Even if PAS and UMNO MPs were to jointly agree to that, the number of Malay MPs from across the board can hardly touch 148 of them if they are to change Common Law to Islamic Shariah law. If you are to do a national level referendum, many people including Malay folk themselves do not seem agreeable to using Shariah law in entire national scale. 

Suppose if the motion overcomes the first hurdle, the second hurdle requires that the motion must be eventually agreed by the council of rulers.  (Majlis Raja-Raja Melayu). From the way it goes, they too are unlikely to agree to the idea taken into consideration that there are 11.5 million non-Muslim Malaysians young to old age that are living in this country.

Some of us brought up this matter in a casual manner with other MCA members (sans top brass) that if a person is well familiar with the Federal constitution, the dream of implementing hudud in the nationwide scale is mathematically impossible. By action it is quite tough to do whereas claiming by mouth seems to say otherwise. 

So therefore, people simply don't need to worry of having that for this might not happen maybe in the next 3-4 decades to come. In other words, MCA simply talks trash on the hudud, just like telling ghost stories to people who are naive.

Sampai Kiamat Masih Jadi Bodoh!

1. This is more or less a dilemma issue that I want to point out. Where I want to place this is somewhere between Raja Petra's recent sarcastic posting entitled "Cina Sudah Kurang Ajar! Dah Lupa 13 Mei?" and my friend Haris' posting entitled "Fear Mongering, RPK Style". The two main interesting points to be summarized here are:

a) For the former, it is a response from someone using the yardstick that freedom of speech is absolute, no holds barred, with no tolerance line / borders defined. With that scenario - what would be the response to a picture depicting a man stamping on a picture of Najib.

b) For the latter, it is about not needing racial tones and imagery, but based on past experiences / encounters instead, it is that a real multi-racial community can come out to fight oppression and bring down a government that seems to no longer cares for the real welfare of the nation and plunging the country into the abyss of no recovery - despite repeated self-denials - in a real democratic way and a level playing field without bias from any agency.

2. Nobody wants and likes a confrontation anyhow. Recently Najib declared in Johor that it is taboo for the opposition to take over Putrajaya. It already violated his own tenets of 1Malaysia -as he is the imam of that school of thought. This statement also reflects what I have mentioned several times that UMNO has the same mentality of the Provisional IRA (Irish Republican Army). I have also noted that for them, a loss, even a setback is considered a "capitulation" to the enemy - hence the statement above. 

The statement and UMNO's value system is also underscored in Pete's 'Like a Trapped Animal Part 4:"

Excerpt:

To Pakatan Rakyat, this may just be about winning or losing an election. To Umno, it is about the life and death of Barisan Nasional. Pakatan Rakyat can lose the election and still continue to exist as an opposition grouping. Barisan Nasional cannot lose the election and continue to exist as an opposition coalition. Barisan Nasional would be hit with a double whammy. Death will follow its defeat, a danger that Pakatan Rakyat does not face. 

3.  Most of us admit that it is high time to change the government despite repeated warnings to change and no improvement, instead it gets worse and the attitude of the present government of the day still remains in the same, thinking that they are losing their Godsend right. As in talking about with the next general election, any coalition that needs to win well (simple or with 2/3rds majority) will need achieve the following factors - as acknowledged by many including political analysts:

a) Malay votes

b) Sabah and Sarawak's 56 Parliament seats on the platter.

4. The first part is easier to achieve in Peninsular Malaysia. This is because if the main lynchpin is weak, BN's partners in Sabah and Sarawak may choose to declare themselves out of the fold and be independent - thus the kingmaker role - or joining the other coalition; something that some people might not be happy with. From what I was told that "the joining the other coalition" option is a possibility that should not be discounted.

5. Malay votes is 50-50 since Anwar's sacking and jailing since 1999. As a few friends observed, a 5-10 percent swing (at least) can give Anwar's coalition a simple majority in Parliament. Remember that the minority votes alone will not be enough to decide the outcome. A bone of contention that is to be a problem is the matter called the Malay Mindset.

6. However, we have bigger problems as where the country will be heading. Another Greece scenario will happen in Malaysia since the debt + hidden has already hit more than half trillion ringgit - disregarding the amount on investment and the amount of income that comes in. Roubini - a.k.a. Dr. Doom - has foresee that 2013 is an economic storm that it will be quite hard to get out. 

7. Unfortunately there's still a majority of people have yet to realize of the set of problems in front of us. They still support the same party who many are angered over the amount of plundering, corruption and crimes that they have committed against the country. Indeed as what Datuk Sakmongkol recently said, a mental revolution is necessary. In my view, the real problem is how to empower the other Malays who are still in the traditional mindset - as what a friend of mine Aspan recently said - the conventional believe is that UMNO is everything, for if that particular organization falls, the Malays will be extinct. In actual it doesn't actually happen. That claim is ex nihilo - out of nothing just to scare the shit out of people.

8. My dilemma is on how Malaysia can stop the rot and plunging further as well as the need to catch up with their other emerging neighboring countries. The major stumbling block is the mindset of the majority. I still find that there are still many who are afraid to move in what Zaid Ibrahim said "ready to abandon “the path chosen for them by Umno for the last 55 years” and seek other answers to the problems they face".

9. Looking at Greece, I see a hard lesson dished out and deserved for those people. If Malaysia suffers the similar fate later, only then the people would then realize, but too late to avoid troubles and despair - that is if the ruling coalition at the time of disaster still remains BN - this is based on the observations of many political analysts that they will still win but with a smaller majority.

10. One way that can be done - a.l.a reverse psychology style - is shake them and insult them to wake them up. We understand that many are still hesitant and unwilling to change. Yes, I agree, that the ABU (Anything But UMNO) is needed to be brought inroads but examining the problem right now, as what Aspan said:

Pertamanya, Melayu mesti menyokong UMNO bulat-bulat dan jangan mengambil kira samada UMNO itu jujur atau tidak. Mereka menganggap Melayu mesti dipenjara dan diberi makan sikit-sikit untuk mengelak orang Melayu dari berfikir dan bertindak mengikut kehendak zaman dan waktunya. Kalau pemimpin rasuah ditabur benih-benih nilai yang membunuh orang Melayu sendiri seperti ada sesetengah Melayu yang berkata, “kalau Melayu rasuah itu Melayu, orang Melayu juga yang kaya. Apa yang hendak dicemburukan?”

Apa sahaja yang pemimpin mereka buat jangan dipersoalkan. Yang Melayu mesti lakukan ialah menyokong sahaja dan jangan berbuat apa-apa. Terima sahaja bantuan rakyat 1Malaysia (BRIM) dan bersyukurlah sampai mati. Terima sahaja bantuan dua batang gigi palsu dan terus mengundi UMNO sampai mati. Itu adalah sifat berterima kasih. Kalau tidak menyokong UMNO pulangkan balik gigi palsu itu kepada kerajaan.

 

11. I have the same sentiment and feeling above. I have recently asked a few friends on whether telling this whole thing to the Malay community would get the effect intended. I was met with a not advisable answer because that the target audience, some, would be wondering why a Chinese man start talking issues like this to them? In other words, it means they might not get the point intended to be addressed or they would say "who is this guy talking to anyway?"

12. As a side note, Simpang Pulai assemblyman Chan Ming Kai was also told the same answer before. This means that it will be up to the more intellectual, liberal minded Malay friends to empower their own people to wake up before it is too late. Recent commentary written by Datuk Sak and Aspan have also exactly pointed out what is necessary to be addressed to the Malay community. I have also seen tweets of perverted logic that some people, including those lower level people from UMNO that talks things that doesn't make sense. My only feeling and impression about that problem is that "sampai kiamat masih jadi bodoh"!

Further material:

Mengundi UMNO Bukan Wajib Hukumnya (Pt 1)

Mengundi UMNO Bukan Wajib Hukumnya (Pt 2)

Post Merdeka: Copycatting and Cheating Ourselves : Part 1

Part 1: Sweetening The Numbers

I saw a few screenshots of the same tweet but by a few people. Looking at the tweet handle and their names, it reminded me of running a stress and sanity test of an application that I have conducted two years ago at a Hewlett Packard facility in Petaling Jaya. For example: 

Back at the facility, I would create a spread sheet containing a list of usernames, and encrypted passwords - all dummy in nature so that the HP's utility program would proceed to create the user profiles and other primary user-related data contained in one of our application modules.  For example, the tweet handle above TAN CHOR KHAI in particular is somewhat matching to a default tweet Id that I would use if I am to create a dummy / test account using a real-name user account permitted only scenario.

Why would someone - judging by their names, handles and their identity would put in something that was written by someone. The retweet function doesn't result like this. A retweet tag would definitely be visible if I am retweeting something else. It is almost tough to cheat the Twitter system if you are trying to retweet something there.

Based on the next screenshot by Politweet above, if as a user that wants to tweet or retweet material that can be shared with other friends, the twitter handle of a person would preferably show something imaginative rather than a plain straightforward user handle. But something is not right: based on the tweet above, there it is not likely that every user coincidentally were at Queensbay mall when the first tweet was written. The logic by that scenario is surely as some would say that it is written by a bot program, with multiple bot-style tweet ids.

If what Rais Yatim (a.k.a Ayah Dino) said of 3.6 million tweets of #Merdeka55, people including him are actually cheating themselves as to get themselves complacent. That's also the effect of the mainstream press not publishing articles showing elements of dissent against the government. Complacency would be one of  the end products from that way of managing. 

Cheating themselves would eventually catch back on themselves. Take the Enron scandal as a the clearest example. 

Jeffrey Skilling and Andrew Fastow had misled the entire board of directors and the audit firm Arthur Andersen via account loopholes, special entities, hiding bad debts and so forth. In order to show Enron favorable fiscal finances, the accounts were manipulated based on the forecast figures to their ideals.

Eventually by November 2001, $11 billion were lost when the stock plummeted from $90 in mid-2000 to that time. Arthur Andersen subsequently wind-up, losing customers as the result of the scandal.

Interestingly, the attendance for the Merdeka 55 at Bukit Jalil stadium is also another way to demonstrate the tricks to sweeten up the numbers:

1. Monies and bonanzas for GLC-staffs, students, undergraduates to come for the event.

2. Compulsory orders for staffs, otherwise being blacklisted

3. Indons, Banglas and Nepalis attending there.

It's very simple to explain why this happened. Remember Hari Korperasi Negara?

On 14 July, people were also paid monies to attend that event that was officiated by Najib at the same venue. 

It was only half-full. When Najib started his speech, many started to leave the stadium, out of boredom. Embarrassed by that incident, the minister, Ismail Sabri (a.k.a Ayah Dafi) blacklisted and transferred 5 directors of the Cooperative Commission to cover up his mistakes. 5 state directors were transferred in the space of 24 hours. Executive Chairman and deputy were recommended to be terminated or reduction of salary upon investigation.

No matter what directive that has been put or otherwise, the government is still cheating themselves as to sweeten the numbers. It's like Enron but in the different scenario.

So we have cheated ourselves, particularly on those naive. Many have reacted aggressively, but not aware that they have been cheated and misled by the very own organisation that they are supporting. That's the problem of not reading extensively. The claim of Malaysians reading an average of 2 books per year holds true to this day.!

To be continued....

Merdeka 55 Tahun: Janji Dicapati