Wednesday, April 25, 2012

You Only Need Another 15 Or More

Political analyst Wong Chin Huat's summation that for every one rural vote, represents six urban votes is correct given that it is based on how the constituent areas were drawn. Some small, some are big, while some are separated from the previous deliniation exercise. It is no doubt that 33.8% votes for BN at least is enough for them to form a federal government with a minimum of 112 seats.

"Something is seriously wrong when you can win 50.4 per cent of Parliament with just 18.9 per cent of the votes." Chin Huat said.

I once lamented that the rural people do not know the cost and the price they will pay if they still vote for a government known to have bad conducts.

Penentration of rural voting is quite hard. This is not because people do not trust alternatives like BN.

It's simple because many are illiterate. Even if they talk, but yet they are not able to get to know the parties well. They are merely given cash goodies and told to vote for the "dacing" (read BN). Therefore, talk about corruption, cows, Felda, Scorpene submarines that the big three men Anwar, Lim Kit Siang and Hadi Awang don't really work 100% at all. It will take a long time to cure this syndrome because in the next 10-20 years, many would have already been dead. There's not really much things we can work on, unless you fight fire with fire. Here, the urban minorities have to do a little more work to reach out the rural areas.

In the States, people who are based in major cities like New York and Los Angeles are the ones that reached out to the people in the mid-west / center America to let them know of

Previously, Lim Guan Eng spoke of winning at least another 15-20 parliamentary seats in the next GE. I was pretty skeptical at the beginning because it assumes that PR is able to defend their previous winning successfully. Many fence-sitters (i.e those who did not register as voter previously) are not aware of the unexpected success that there could be higher chances of defending and winning a few more seats. With more legitimate (not the foreigner for citizenship) voters being registered in the EC, the forecast results based on the 2008 statistics is not really relevant already.

Guan Eng's estimation of at least 15 is quite modest in estimation and target. It's not that hard to win. They can take 5 more parliamentary seats out of each of the 3 states in the Southern Peninsular: Negeri Sembilan, Melaka and Johor. Pahang can also be a bonus, give or take 3 more due to the Lynas issue. Negeri Sembilan is in deep trouble, Johor and Melaka will start to see more penetration by PR. If some of the DAP veterans are moved back to Johor, then the chances are MCA is likely to be finished almost entirely.

Actually, winning big for PR is a dream big goal, but to go for that at this point of time is too unrealistic because they cannot match the BN's warchest of between RM 600 million to RM 1.7 billion. However, adding another 15-30 more to their PR parliamentary pocket can cause some ripples and unprofound effects to the East Malaysia partners. You have to remember that Sabah and Sarawak are actually kingmakers (with their local parties there), not fixed deposits, mind you. Sabah and Sarawak's way of thinking is not the same as people in Peninsular.

As for the profound effect of what might happen, I let figure it out.

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