At What Real Cost?

The top brass of Barisan Nasional has been running around the country and giving all sorts of promises, splashing goodies around to the people in exchange for requesting them to give support in the next general elections. I was already certain that the general election would be somewhere around in November mainly because this takes into account of how the possible feel good hype that would be elicited from the people after the 2013 budget announcement, and the incentives that could be offered in conjunction with the Haji and Deepavali holidays. Analyzing on people sentiment, the ruling coalition is likely to count on the Malay votes (if you can understand their psyche, mindset as well) and the roller-coaster mindset of the Indians which can go up and down depending on the situation that arises that involves their society.

It is unlikely that they would wait until after Chinese New Year because the situation seems not well to them. It has already been established that most of Chinese are dead-set to vote for the opposition. The one thing that many in the top brass may find it hard to comprehend even including UMNO's partner, MCA is perhaps of the level of maturity, awareness and the mindset of the Chinese community in comparison with the other races of the Malaysian community. It is already noted that the level of support is very low that UMNO has already given up any big chance to regain support from the Chinese.

From the tone of what I am to present:

Sounds like I am talking race comparison.

Sounds like I am looking down at other people.

Sounds like I am talking race stuff. 

Sounds like I am screaming "I'm better than you." 

But out of here, there is a question that I wish to bring out especially at the naive and those who find it hard to believe in it. There's not much need for me to harp on the racial, royalty and religion thing as it is not my forte to talk about nor to those who are looking more bigger issues than those three that merely scratch the surface.

Recently there have been speeches from the big brass like (e.g Mahathir, Muhyiddin, Rais Yatim, Najib) calling for Malay unity, general unity, demands for gratitude to the ruling party, you help me I help you things in particular. They shout non-stop almost every day of "vote for us to keep the country stable." These leaders imply that the country would collapse if they do not hold on to their power on and on. And on prime time television, the party-owned private channels in particular are playing propaganda ads as to push for more support -no thanks to their infinite amount of resources, so as they perceived. But then again it's already almost 60 years they are in power, yet they are found to be caught with misconduct in almost every aspect of the country administration.

Some people have been asking why most of the Chinese community and the well-educated middle class have already no longer willing to stick to the convention and decide to go for something totally different and out of the box. The country's running old men have been calling and accusing some of them as creating a revolution and scream of instability if there's a change of guard in the country. Contrary to that, there's actually no such unusual effect happening since this scenario often happens in other countries. There's nothing to be excited about and to cheer about it. And as to allow me to answer that, it comes to one high probable reason: if you can understand the saying of "survival of the fittest" then perhaps it can answer that solution above. People have started to get past the "must feed me" thing and use other means to achieve success in live.

So why does the mainstream media seem to glorify the government although they are clearly have committed some gross misconduct? One thing is for sure, they are now lagging in support and are trying to drum up support way to the finishing line sometime around next year at most.

I appreciate some of the writings written by some of my friends that when being conveyed their own people which describes of how people are being mislead over the promises made by the present government of the day only to see what was promised being denied claiming of no such claim. Note that the present opposition has not at once run as the government of the day so it is not right to compare their track record because we didn't give them the chance to demonstrate their capabilities.

I also appreciate that through their writings that their people have started to acknowledge their mistakes and have started to wake up. However my only question to them would be on what about those who are still unwilling to correct their mistakes and stand for the coalition that has committed many misdeeds and gross misconduct? And what about those who are going to be ultimately mislead?

Here's one example of a person being ultimately mislead: Recently the man who accused Mat Sabu on the Mat Indera case has already admitted to the court that he made a police report based on the Utusan newspaper report. It was already proven that Mat Sabu did not utter or say anything that is referred to Communism in his series of public speeches. The man has then admitted to this and has asked the Sessions court in Penang to drop the case. This means that the man was a victim of misleading by the spin by the media - the spin that the government of the day, the present ruling coalition wishes to show it to the mass people.

Sure, it is still their right to decide. You can't obstruct them from making their choice. At what cost in exchange for your vote for them?


Okay, you would accuse me as another person dead set on going against the coalition party. I have my own set of reasons behind it. Any well educated, matured person can think of it. And if people ask me whether I am taking the risk to go and do something unconventional, the answer is yes. It's like making an unusual bet of (e.g a Double 0 in roulette, Snake Eyes for dice craps, etc..). Let's face it that the fate and future of the country is not decided by the handful of people nor just the minority of the Malaysians but the majority of people that forms the big part of the Malaysian society - but the problem is of being too simple-minded.

And allow me to fill in the blanks for you, o'naive and unbeliever ones for the question above:

1. You are actually acknowledging that flocks of sheep fly in the sky and monies fall from the trees.
2. You are condemning your future generations and your country to remain mundane until the point we're all gone and after say another 100 years of independence.
3. You show yourself that you're chickening out with no guts to think out of the box and vs convention.
4. You are actually saying that up becomes down, black is white - what is illegal is legal and vice versa.
5. You are saying that you don't really believe the real warnings - not by those who claim to say it's okay for now -  until it is too late to go back because you got complacent subsequently. The Greece scenario is a case in point.

The UMNO Boogeyman Games in Tenang Has Begun!

According to Harakah, there are leaflets, indirectly pointing to UMNO that has been circulating around the town of Tenang, ahead of the nomination on 22 January that obviously contains the cliche elements of fear at the voters. The leaflets, obviously said that DAP is anti-Islam will ban azans, PAS politics are bad and so forth. The circulation of these leaflets obviously would start at first at FELDA areas in that district because FELDA forms part of the 42 percentage of total voters in Tenang.

Unfortunately, I could not find an English version of this piece, so I would provide you an excerpt here, the rest is from the Harakah Malay version link.

Risalah tidak bertuan yang mula tersebar di Dewan Undangan Negeri (Dun) Tenang bertujuan mempengaruhi pengundi Melayu, dakwa Ketua Pemuda PAS Johor, Khairul Faizi Ahmad Kamil.


Beliau berkata, pihaknya ada melihat risalah berbentuk buku kecil bertajuk DAP anti-Islam dan 'Khawarij dan Politik PAS' itu namun belum terserempak dengan individu yang melakukan penyebaran itu.

"Sekarang ini dah mula banyak risalah tidak bertuan mula disebarkan di Felda dan nampaknya risalah tu lebih kepada nak mempengaruhi pengundi Melayu.

"Banyak risalah yang kita jumpa telah diedarkan yang ditinggalkan di kedai-kedai makan, bukan sedang diedarkan. Jadi kita tidak boleh tuduh sesiapa sebab tak ada nama," katanya ketika dihubungi Harakahdaily hari ini.

Menurut beliau, yang merupakan Pengarah Keselamatan Pemuda PAS negeri, pihaknya tidak akan teragak-agak membawa perkara itu kepada pihak polis sekiranya menjumpai individu yang melakukan perbuatan itu.

"Kita minta unit keselamatan pemuda, sekiranya menjumpai risalah yang disebarkan, kita ambil dan buang.

"Kalau kita jumpa mana-mana pihak yang menyebar risalah ini kita tidak akan teragak-agak untuk bawa mereka kepada pihak polis kerana risalah ini lebih kepada menyampaikan fitnah kepada masyarakat," katanya.

Ujarnya, kemunculan risalah-risalah fitnah ini lebih wajar diberi perhatian berbanding menuduh PAS mula turun berkempen.

"Dalam media Umno BN tuduh PAS mula berkempen. Memang kita turun tapi atas nama parti ataupun organisasi seperti melancarkan jentera pilihan raya dan sebagainya. Itu perkara biasa.

"Tapi ada pihak yang turun tanpa menamakan diri mereka siapa dan mengedarkan risalah. Ini satu kempen yang tidak sihat," katanya.

Sebelum ini, sebuah portal berita melaporkan Pengerusi Majlis Pimpinan Negeri PKR Johor, Datuk Chua Jui Meng mendedahkan penyebaran risalah fitnah ini di sekitar Dun Tenang.

Risalah DAP anti Islam mengandungi nota yang bertulis DAP akan mengharamkan azan, majlis maulidur rasul dan sebagainya jika Pakatan Rakyat memerintah.

The police has no doubt, unknowingly and indirectly has played their part of the boogeyman game by stopping various public speeches by Anwar and PR. Sure, whenever Anwar starts to talk, the police would come in. Of course, these people had to obey orders from the superiors otherwise, they would find themselves in disciplinary investigations and punishments for insubordination. My gut feeling is that whoever the superior that handles this matter is surely taking orders from a big man who is carrying the party membership card - hand me down order that is and the saying that Anwar is too hot to handle in Tenang. FELDA communities there are very interested to hear what Anwar and PR would say because of ANAK, standing for the FELDA community rights. According to Malaysiakini, FELDA Cempelak drew about 3000 people but many got blocked by the police.

UMNO screams at Malay politicians from opposition parties for not propagating the Ketuanan Melayu concept. They call those people traitors to the Malay race, traitors to the Nation, etc. All those calling names are always the second step that they would use to scare the normal Malay citizens of the danger of losing Malay rights and so forth. But the term Malay rights never existed in Article 153! They are hoping that many, who do not have the knowledge of the Federal constitution would panic over such fear-mongering. If a politician says that, then:

a)  either the man doesn't bother to read the Federal Constitution - a LAZY thinker. OR

b)  if the man knows but says that, then he / she is trying to lie to everyone. Menipu Melayu that is.

In fact you can go out and buy a book, English or Malay version and read it for yourselves to see what they claim is true or not. Sure, every bookstore from MPH sells that at an affordable price. No way it can be too expensive for one...And of course those who would say that are those deservedly called by Singapore (in the Wikileaks thing) as incompetent politicians and people who are bankrupt of ideas.

No need for me to repeat this and I must compliment RPK for releasing a new style of presenting the audience in his No Holds Barred column: podcast. Interestingly, the podcast is in Malay and it would be nice if people get their hands on the recording and listen in plain Malay for the sake of the majority of the audience and for those who have problems in understanding English of course.

I for one for once a while would encourage people to do a little searching around the net, since broadband penetration in Malaysia has hit more than 50 percent. What people can do is to look for not politician videos, but civil society videos, e.g Hishamuddin Rais videos that do speak similar subjects in that but in Malay as to get the idea.

Budget 2011

1. The first and foremost thing about the 2011 budget is that though there are some interesting points mentioned that touches on an individual, it didn't really addresses more on people-centric despite it being billed "people's budget" by Najib. For instance, the minimum wage matter that trade unions have be clamoring for countless of times, only for the government to say "at a later date", which means that the government has no solutions at this time to address the problem by middle and lower class workers. Secondly, it is not compatible with the NEM, giving that the NEM that Najib himself taked about is mere lip service and talk only.

2. It seems that there are signs of the Big Mama's demand inside the budget, which includes RM 111 million for PERMATA, and the abolishment of the import duty for selected goods. The latter, a lot of people know of Rosmah's tendencies to go shopping for expensive items when on overseas tour. At one time, we remembered her buying a lot of expensive watches for a huge astronomical sum of people's money. We too loved the sarcasm that the MPs belted out when Najib mentioned that. "Aha, Rosmah!" that's what the PR MPs would exclaim about.

I recalled that in the past no wife of a Finance Minister would come in and interfere with the shape of the Budget. Not even Mahathir, Anwar, Ku Li (the previous Finance Ministers) and others. The Treasury people too, (as reported last year) admitted that they are uncomfortable of Rosmah running things around, acting as if she is a government official, whereas her capacity is only being the wife of the PM.

3. I have viewed through some highlights of the budget. Not much on dealing individually. Among some notable points of interest:

a) Highway tolls - Rates on hold for the next 5 years. Expect an increment more than 10 percent by 2015 as to compensate the compensation paid to PLUS and other toll concessionaires . It seems that Khazanah is not willing to let its competitors (Mahathir's business partners, e.g Syed Mokthar or Halim Saad) MMC or Asas Serba win the buyout of UEM although their offer is great and the sweetener to the deal - no increase of toll rates until the end of the concession period in 2038. 

Skepticism would be on how they are willing to finance their money for the buy out. Now that Khazanah and EPF wants to buy out UEM at $23 billion, is it possible for the other two to stop that and increase their bid higher than 23 billion? Or another way to win that bid that Najib cannot refuse? One good reason that people can figure it out is that Nazir Razak (CIMB CEO) is not likely to get the pot of gold - projects if Mahathir's partners gets most.

b) First time house buying - Buying house in Klang Valley is a bit difficult. Due to the fluctuation of property prices from speculation, most house prices would be at the median of RM 400K which means that still young and middle-income people will have the difficulty of buying houses there. The maximum estimate price of RM350 K mentioned would fit properties within suburban areas - outside Klang Valley / Penang island for example. Yet it still lacks the solutions to handle this dilemma. In the economic turbulence of 2008, the rental rates in Klang Valley dropped by at least 20% only to rebound back recently. Unless, (by some stupid idea) - they sell to young people at half price.

c) Exemption of sales tax for handphones - Does that mean that all prices now will be 10 percent less? Maybe we need to tell the merchants that you will be paying 10 percent less because of the exclusion of sales tax. 

d) Removal of import duty for goods - The budget did not mention the complete list of what goods that fall under that action. It is hoped that there would be a complete list of items that fall under that case. And what about consumer technological items? It would be a good idea to have those fall under that removal of duty because this would increase the rate of affordability for people to get an item at a good price as well as catching up with the technology. Singapore and Australia, among our Aisan neighbours are technologically far advanced ahead of us. 

e) Service tax increment to 6% - This is obvious to compensate the GST that is put on hold. It is also another way to increase revenue to the government coffers. But to have 6% in this current times of low income and hardly any increment means that it could create more trouble for people to pay in places where service tax is applicable, unless Customs Department (which Sales Tax 1975 is under their purview) increases the income cap to RM 750K or RM 1 mil per month. 

4. The budget is built on assumptions that the GDP for 2011 will be at 7%. However, Malaysia still has a huge amount of deficit since the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis. When calculating total cumulative debts with reserves available, Malaysia has no more reserves already. Yet, to go ahead with the such budget with tons of mega projects is like staking a country in the house of cards. And a house of cards is not stable. It can collapse with a sneeze from elsewhere. Where can Malaysia get money if income tax revenue, FDI investment drying up and corruption still rampant? The one possible solution is like the US to print money. In turn, printing money means of borrowing money from other countries, increasing the national debt. The U.S's national debt stands at $1.6 trillion US as of now. The more money being printed, the higher the debt the nation would be plunged into. 

5. Let's look at the slew of mega projects proposed under the budget:

• Mass Rapid Transit System: RM 43 billion transportation system for Kuala Lumpur and surrounding. Question: How is this project being funded and will the federal govt guarantee the funding?

• Kuala Lumpur International Financial District: This is a RM26 billion 34 hectares development in the Jalan Davis bordering the Imbi area which was earlier mistaken for the old Sungei Besi airbase project. A 1Malaysia Development Berhad joint venture with the Abu Dhabi Mubadala group.

• Warisan Merdeka: Another iconic landmark mega-development of RM 5 billion to be completed by 2015. Another project to be undertaken by Permodalan Nasional Berhad (PNB). This project covering an area of 15 hectares in the old Stadium Merdeka and Stadium Negara surrounding will include the 100 storey tallest building in Malaysia.

• Sungei Buloh development: Land privatization development owned by the Rubber Research Institute (RRI) of an area of 1350 hectares to be develop by EPF Employees Provident Fund with a value of RM10 billion.

• Nexus Karambunai, Sabah: An integrated eco-nature resort development at a cost of RM 3 billion. Question: RM3 billion to build a resort is a huge sum, is the federal govt providing the funds?

Now we also look at the slew of budget allocations:

Education: For Restructuring and Strengthening RM 29.3 billion to the Education Ministry. RM 10.2 billion for the Higher Education Ministry and RM 627 million for the Human Resource Ministry.

·        Education: Another RM 6.4 billion to build and upgrade schools and etc.

·        Health: RM 15.2 billion for new hospitals and etc.

·        Defence: Allocated a total budget of RM 9.1 billion which is a reduction from RM 10.5 billion.

·        Corridor: RM 850 million for infrastructure support to the corridor and regional development.

·        1Malaysia Training Program: Allocation of RM 500 million. What’s this?

·        RM 1 billion allocated for the launching of the Bumiputra Property Trust Foundation. (No details provided).

  

Don't forget the slew of projects started but in incubation or in hangover:

• 160 hectares old Sungei Besi air base with an estimated value of RM 20 billion which has generated much stories of Jho Low, the bright young man seen as companion to Paris Hilton having had a hand in this much coveted mega multi billion project.

• Another mega-project of the 150 hectares of Kampung Baru land within the city centre of Kuala Lumpur, and PNB is again undertaking the redevelopment of over RM 20 billion in value.

• Riverside Garden City a 25 hectares redevelopment of the former Pekeliling Flats with the proposed futuristic revolving 60 storey skyscraper with a value of RM 12 billion.

• 9 hectares of government land in the Cochrane and
  Peel Road
  area with an estimated value of RM 10 billion to be develop again by 1MDB and EPF.

More multi billion projects that have been approved and about to be started or in progress like:

• MATRADE centre with 25 hectares of land in the Jalan Duta area to be undertaken by the Naza Group estimated at RM 15 billion value.

• Platinum Park in KLCC also by Naza Group that will incorporate the new iconic Felda Towers and a new Naza Towers. This is a development of RM 5 billion now under construction.

• Old Pudu Prison of 8.5 hectares with a value of RM 5 billion scheduled to start work by early 2011 to be developed by UDA Holdings Berhad.

• Eco City with 10 hectares of DBKL land next to Mid Valley City with a value of RM 6 billion to be jointly developed by another GLC of SP Setia Bhd and DBKL.

• On going KL Sentral of 30 hectares land with a value of RM 12 billion being developed by Malaysian Resources Corporation Berhad.

With the number of hangover projects in hand, the Najib administration is going a bridge too far. Past projects was never taken into account, probably because of kickbacks, red tapes and etc. When you count together the amount of allocations and project costs coupled the amount from the hangover project, the cost is more. And yet the Najib administration is still going for it, making whatever they are doing a very huge gamble. Like in a high stakes poker game, the risk of losing is very high, meaning if there is another global economic bubble bang happening soon, the house of cards would collapse and Najib's mega projects would go under the drain.

5. Brazil Finance Minister Guido Mantega declared on 27 September that a world currency war has broken out already. America is facing the trouble of a weakening US dollar and on the worst case scenario, expect dollar devaluation. In fact the problem could start as early as December. The US dollar could drop as low to $45. In addition to that, expect higher inflation and collapse worse than the 1929 Great Depression in the scope will hit worldwide. Malaysia has no reserves to cushion the impact of such scenario but is still pushing for those projects. It is high time for Malaysia to start reducing its dependence on Western investment as to cushion the possible hit. All those measures like preferential programs and the protectionist fees in buying cars will likely have to go if government does not want people to get economically injured more when the time comes. 

6. The 100-story Warisan Merdeka project is a very foolish idea to do it. It also takes billions of ringgit, which in turn can be used to help the people. These remarks below:

“We take pride in our national icon, the Petronas Twin Towers. It signifies the spirit of Malaysia Boleh. Another landmark to be developed by PNB is Warisan Merdeka, expected to be ready by 2020″ -  Najib

“…everybody wants a tallest tower. Shanghai and Taiwan want more, so why should we hold back?…The most important thing is that we can do it. Why should we hold back?…The building serves to balance Malaysia’s traditional cultures and pursuit for modernity. This will put Malaysia on the tourist map” – Tourism Minister Dr Ng Yen Yen

“The nation must have a dream. We had the Twin Towers and KLCC. Now, the 100-story building will be the new ‘Malaysia boleh’. This is good because we all need to dream. All these projects that are coming under the Great Kuala Lumpur plan and other mega-projects will bring in foreign investors that will spur the economy,” – Deputy Minister in the Prime Minister’s Department SK Devamany

Don't these people have better idea to handle that 5 billion rather than building another landmark that we already have in place like KLCC and KL Tower? I find that whoever says yes to that thing is like ala zombies, follow the leader only, yes man..as what these two are indirectly showing. 

7. Summary and conclusion - Malaysia's ambition of going for more mega projects at the time of turbulence is a very unwise move. As what John Perkins said in his book, only an economic hitmen would advise them to go for more mega projects. Subsidy reduction is another measure that they would suggest. But people do not know that this measure means cheating people of their hard-earned money. And in the end, if the country falls economically, the people will lose big and the economic hitmen wins with the swindled money. Najib is gambling high stakes poker here.

It's Predictable!

It's easy to figure out whether that person is quitting the party or not by this sequence of events:

1. Deny that such thing exists.

2. Ominous rumours from third-party that this politician has personal problems.

3. Someone ex-from the party says that there will be one or two people from the party that will jump ship.

4. Sometime later on, the man who is about to quit nods in affirmation by releasing a press statement.

The latest trend, happens to Wangsa Maju MP Wee Choo Keong, a few days ago.

His departure was already predicted sometime back ago. Two weeks before the general election he once said that despite being a small size party in MDP, he was contesting on a PKR ticket. This means that he's not entirely bound by the PKR laws, just I see that not many people know what is really MDP apart from the big three of Pakatan Rakyat.

What was written in the press statement is only part of the entire picture of why he decides to quit. There were whispers around that claim that Wee has an affair with two mistresses, sired an illegitimate child and this has found the attention of UMNO. Indeed UMNO has caught him by the balls and threatened to expose the scandal. 

Could this quote from Pete alludes and fills the other half of the puzzle?

“Wee Choo Keong’s problem is more complicating. It involves two mistresses and one who has just given birth and Umno has threatened to expose this scandal. He also has this RM35 million legal problem with Ambank and if this can be settled ‘out of court’ then Wee will certainly become another ‘independent’ Member of Parliament.”

A friend of mine did mention of possibility of Wee's problems and jackpot....he got it right. That was way past few months prior to yesterday that is. 

It's predicatble really.