Wednesday, December 29, 2010

Tenang Could Be Like Bagan Pinang Again!

The next by-election at Tenang is somewhat feels like back in Bagan Pinang simply because of a few reasons I can think of. No, it is not totally a carbon copy of what really happened in there in October last year, but you can see the similarities: nightly campaign talks, both campaigning parties are offering whatever they would promise if they are elected and so forth. But of course, from my 2 trips to Port Dickson, witnessing big BN tents in 8th mile of Port Dickson, I can say it's a same feeling as there.

Below, I would be putting some initial notes and comments that are likely to happen in Tenang:

1. It all comes to picking the right candidate for Pakatan Rakyat. It doesn't matter who's the BN candidate, but it all matters into picking the candidate from which party. If a PAS candidate is picked, a repeat of the previous attempt, chances are PAS will not win again, and the winning margin that BN could win is a little higher than the previous round. The mistake that Pakatan made in Bagan Pinang was sending in a PAS man in an area with a mix spread of population. Tenang is 47/38/15 spread of Malay/Chinese/Others, so putting a PAS is similar of a buffalo facing against a Sherman tank - virtually a suicide move there. On the other hand, a PKR candidate there can likely reduce the win majority for BN or pulling a surprise win as in Sibu. 

2. The reason BN won Bagan Pinang is not because of how much they offered, but it was the popularity factor, the Isa Samad factor, just as the Anwar Ibrahim popularity factor in Permatang Pauh. But in Tenang, that popularity factor is not there, so there's some bit of level playing field in this aspect. 

3.  Tenang surely has some FELDA estates there, so we can anticipate debates between FELDA and ANAK. Now that Isa Samad is taking over as Felda chairman next year onwards, we can see a battle of "who wins this round" game that can sway votes to PR or to BN. As what Hishamuddin Rais said, Mak Cik and Pak Cik Felda mostly has no clue and most of them will hear about BN and no idea of what PR would do. Penentration in there? Maybe for PR, if they can play smart and tactically. Isa would definitely try to explain the Felda issue on the ground. However, Isa's appointment is more or less to pacify him - since Isa has the first hand knowledge of Najib's affair with a singer in Port Dickson in 2006.

4. It is high likely Boogeyman tactics employed by UMNO and MCA in particular, since Johor is mainly the first UMNO and a BN stronghold. What I mean by Boogeyman tactics is for instance, UMNO will tell the Malay voters that if they vote for PR, they risk losing their own racial rights and dignity to the ghosts - the Chinese in particular. That is one of the cases. A friend of mine, originally from Batu Pahat  once related to me of something similar that above: the Chinese community, though thinking and mentality may differ and wantechange, but they are constantly told of these adjective words : "unfaithful", "unappreciative", etc... To cut the elaboration short, social mentality and awareness is not as high as in other states.

5. What Anthony Loke said about the aim of reducing majority is much more important than winning the seat. Going for a win is a bonus but to start the campaign for a win is chewing more than what you can take.

Additional material: Hishamuddin Rais - Kekalahan Jadi Kemenangan

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