On the night I came to Bukit Gantang at the end of last month, I was invited for a round of drinks with the Perak bloggers by Chegubard and his entourage. They were on the way to Bukit Selambau for the nomination day of Manikumar.
While having drinks, I was told by the entourage about what might happen in Penanti. It seems to me that having learnt the lesson from what happened at the height of the Perak Constitutional crisis this time they are not willing to take the risk of repeating the same mistake as in Perak. With the fact that former DCM I Fairus resigning, it is clear that they are likely to call the state Speaker to declare the seat vacant. This also takes into the account that Fairus will be charged for the quarry corruption case by the MACC.
The seat could have been declared vacant earlier, but the Pakatan needs to see what happens after his resignation date of April 8 - last Wednesday. And there is a rife speculation that Fairus could be declaring himself independent - the same thing as for the renegade three in Perak. That's why there's likely to be a state-level by-election later.
As for Bukit Lanjan, despite the calls by some groups and NGOs to have Elizabeth Wong to stay on, chances are, she is likely to insist or to push for the resignation from posts. This means that the state Speaker will have no choice but to declare the seat vacant, also paving the way for another by-election.
It could have been done earlier, but had it be done earlier, it could be 5 by-elections in one go, something that Pakatan wants to avoid because of resources stretching too thin. After April 7, we might see two more state by-elections.
However, since April 15 is the where Anwar decides who becomes the DCM I of Penang, and the decision on Elizabeth, things could change, but I reckon that things I mention could happen given of the current scenario.
While having drinks, I was told by the entourage about what might happen in Penanti. It seems to me that having learnt the lesson from what happened at the height of the Perak Constitutional crisis this time they are not willing to take the risk of repeating the same mistake as in Perak. With the fact that former DCM I Fairus resigning, it is clear that they are likely to call the state Speaker to declare the seat vacant. This also takes into the account that Fairus will be charged for the quarry corruption case by the MACC.
The seat could have been declared vacant earlier, but the Pakatan needs to see what happens after his resignation date of April 8 - last Wednesday. And there is a rife speculation that Fairus could be declaring himself independent - the same thing as for the renegade three in Perak. That's why there's likely to be a state-level by-election later.
As for Bukit Lanjan, despite the calls by some groups and NGOs to have Elizabeth Wong to stay on, chances are, she is likely to insist or to push for the resignation from posts. This means that the state Speaker will have no choice but to declare the seat vacant, also paving the way for another by-election.
It could have been done earlier, but had it be done earlier, it could be 5 by-elections in one go, something that Pakatan wants to avoid because of resources stretching too thin. After April 7, we might see two more state by-elections.
However, since April 15 is the where Anwar decides who becomes the DCM I of Penang, and the decision on Elizabeth, things could change, but I reckon that things I mention could happen given of the current scenario.
Pakatan tidak mungkin kosongkan mana mana kawasan mereka sekadar kerana yakin dan mahu menunjukkan kekuatan kerana apa juga kemungkinan boleh berlaku dan jika BN menang - itu satu padah dan bala jika terjadi dalam masa terdekat.
ReplyDeleteDalam Pakatan, ia terlalu kuat pada setiap masa tetapi ia juga terlalu rapuh pada sekelip mata dan inilah yang dibimbangi Anwar, Najib sedang memerhati dengan dekat dan akan bertindak secepat kilat menyambar peluang detik kerapuhan Pakatan.
Najib pernah cuba di Perak dan hampir sahaja Pakatan hilang pengaruh tetapi Anwar tangani dengan cara yang bijak menyelamatkan.
Seperti yang kita biasa dengar, bertahan itu lebih sukar dari memenangi. Apa yang berlaku kucar kacir di Terengganu, Perlis dan Melaka jangan sampai Pakatan leka dan merasakan UMNO makin lemah.