Tuesday, July 17, 2007

Push The Ringgit Higher

I still believe that the ringgit is still undervalued.
After performing well in the first-half of the year, the ringgit drops back to the 3.45 range due to strong performance of the dollar and the NYSE.
However, I think that there should be more aggressive play rather than defensive for the ringgit.
Right now, the peso is leading as Asia's best currency performer, surpassing the Baht which is hitting the limit already. We are still lacking behind and the idea of "letting the market" determining the rate will not help, without a single intervention.
The equlibrium point of the ringgit is now at 3.06, which is the mid-point between the value as of 1994 and 3,8 pegging period of 1998-2005.
The assurance is there that the strengthening of the currency will not affect the export-oriented industries. However, the fact of reaching 3.0 by mid-term is not very good enough. It should be strengthening to 3.25 by year's end.

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