Monday, May 11, 2009

Court Declares Nizar As Legit MB, But It's Not Over Yet.

1. For the Pakatan Rakyat coalition, today's landmark verdict delivered by the KL High Court that Nizar Jamaluddin as the legitimate Menteri Besar shows that the judiciary independence and rule of law is going to be restored, with this as the stepping stone. This was then followed a directive by court to Zambry and the six to vacate office immediately (see this Malaysiakini piece, which includes remarks from Anwar and Bar Council, excluded from The Star)

2. But I will not count on that. There is warning though that whatever happens is not out of the blue yet. The latest setback for the Barisan Nasional regime in Perak will not deter them, as they will use a variety of tools to maintain their hegemony of power in Perak that they acquired via illegal means.

3. Of course, with the main reasoning behind the judgement delevered by the judge, which is stating that a Menteri Besar can only be removed via a vote of confidence or resigned by his own accord, Barisan, via it's illegally appointed speaker Ganesan and the deputy 'prositute' Hee, will call for an emergency assembly, Zambry and Hamidah Osman (Sungai Rapat) will propose for the motion to remove Nizar via the vote of no confidence thing. Hamidah's remark "why should the state assembly be dissolved" has shown her immaturity which resulted of her being critcized by all quarters over a racial remark last year.

4. Nizar also stated that whatever happened during the four month period of Zambry will be subjected to review. Therefore, the so-called gathering at the tree on March 3 is considered legit, and the motions that were passed during that were taken into account, meaning that - Zambry and six excos are suspended from 12 to 18 months; Sivakumar is the legit speaker as of now, and of course Nizar as the legit Menteri Besar. And finally, last thursday's assembly, called via illegal means, rushed without proper procedure and protocol is deemed unaccounted and illegal.

5. Of course, the fear of losing and the unwillingness to spend a lot of money ever after the five by-elections show that how Barisan Nasional is unwilling to play at the election arena. At the beginning, Najib has mentioned via the media of the interest of Barisan to collaborate with Pakatan Rakyat to break the deadlock of the state constituition crisis.

6. A few hours after the court verdict, Najib has announced that the government will appeal against the court decision. I believe this is a stark contrast to what he said earlier of offering a join collaboration with mutual interest to solve the constituition crisis. It is likely that the decision was swayed by Big Mama. Apparently, what was gained on Thursday was screwed due to the court decision. Remember that there are some of us who do know how indecisive Najib can be and sometimes asked Rosmah for help (hence the moniker Isteri Rosmah called by Hisham Rais).

7. If the playing field that is Perak is level, Sultan Azlan will definitely say aye to the dissolution of the assembly and calling for the snap polls. As mentioned again and again BN is not willing due to money. The current public sentiment shows that if played, BN risks losing worse than the 12th General Election. The results could go as big as 45 to 14, of the 59 state seats contested in Perak.

8. Therefore, Nizar must act swiftly and the PR must act tactically, rather than facing via brute force against Barisan Nasional. They must be aware that nationally, they do not have enough resources to fight head to head. There is not much time, but as much as 14 hours to do so before anything from BN could happen. Time is ticking. Nizar will be meeting Raja Nazrin tomorrow morning while the BN files appeal against the court, and the unofficial deadline is tomorrow noon.

9. We could see repercussions from Barisan Nasional , unhappy over the verdict. Consider if we forget about the appeal factor, we could see ridiculous things like the judge being transferred (as a DPP for Raja Petra's sedition trial being transferred to Industrial Court by a furious Gani Patail because of the knowledge of insufficient evidence to convict him). That's an example, but the biggest of all repercussions is another May 13...or follow the father's recipe.

10. I always believe that Sultan Azlan would definitely consent and get it right to having snap poll, for this case as to fulfill the wishes of the people in the state. However, I find it hard to believe that His Highness would grant so, given of how he was persistently reminded and threatened by BN.

Seems now that all is not well for Big Mama as of now :D

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